What makes kill rates so high
Lately we keep on seeing discussions that constatly beat over the fact that kill rates are above 50% which they consider too high, ignoring all the context, pushing the idea that survivors are weak, killers too strong and should all be nerfed it seems.
So, let's make something clear. Even if I ignore the facts like DCs, hook suicides, new players boosting the kill rates, etc all which drastically increases kill rates, what actually makes them so high.
Simply said, it's the fact that 1 player will overall make less mistakes than 4 players, in other words coordination and skill disparity is what's causing survivors to die so much.
By that I want to say that killer is only 1 person, they only need to rely on their own ability to play the game, they don't need anyone else to do well. Solo survivors heavily suffer from the need to have all 4 players play well as even 1 weak survivor can be enough to dramatically shift the odds in killer's favor. That applies even if killer never actually chases said weaker survivor since they'll just be inefficient. They'll take long time to do gens if even, slowly walk around, won't do proper saves not even talking about their chase duration or how they waste resources.
Even if survivors were drastically buffed and killers nerfed the issue would remain, bad uncoordinated players would continue on increasing the kill rate and even the good ones would suffer from lack of coordination making them waste time.
The only way to adress the kill rate issues is first to make proper matchmaking that will not allow mediocre players to get into highest ranks and add more tools for survivors to communicate or get information in some way to lower the gap between 4 SWFs and 4 solos then balance both sides accordingly.
That is at least my take on the reasoning behind the high kill rates.
Comments
People suiciding on the first hook because they don´t like the killer/map/offering/weather/etc make the kill rates high.
Would Perks like NOED also inflate the kill rates?
Don't kill me for this question
Proof?
Nonsense. I know you will never get away from your narrative, but people suiciding on Hook will have little to no impact on Killrates. It has an impact, but is not responsible for Killrates way above 50%.
@Topic:
If anything, the Killrates indicate that playing Killer is not as bad as some people make it up to be. But thats about it.
Probably because so many players are trash. It took forever to escape while others escaped for that damn challenge, I burnt the game map and they still couldn't lead a chase.... the maps full of god pallets!!! Alot of people dont understand killers and their powers either, these all end up in red rank
@Aven_Fallen It isn't if you're good or play decent easy to play killer. As long as you evade good 4 survivor teams, you'll have a good time. That's why I'd want to see ranking putting them together properly at highest ranks.
NOED most likely has an effect on Killrate. But it will be pretty minor. Even if sometimes games swing from a 1K to a 4K due to NOED, I highly doubt that those are the majority. So a Killer will not jump from 50% Killrate to 60% Killrate, just because of NOED.
I’m of the opinion that the game will never be truly balanced. There will always be a side which has more power depending on numerous variables, whether it’s the map, the killer being played, the overall skill of the players etc. I do agree that solo should be buffed to lessen the huge disparity between swfs and solos.
I'd say certainly yes but imo not as big as the other factors.
Despite what people think
killers are actually quite strong
but you are always going to get people tell you on the forums they run into a sweaty seal team 6 swf every single game and killers are really weak
and you are always going to get survivors tell you they always play against a killer who is a camping, tunneling, hacking strider running spirit death machine.
Kill rates are high for a much more simple reason that nobody really talks about much. There is a bias built into reading these Stats flat. Like a lot of video games, there tends to be a lot more Newbie Players than seasoned ones. New people come and try it out, play for a while, and then move on. While in the so-called Potato Ranks, things are definitely Killer-sided, because the main strength of Survivors is teamwork. Thus, as Players become more seasoned, the balance of power shifts away from the Killer (like a see-saw) to the Survivors.
So, if more people come, dabble and move on before truly becoming seasoned, it creates a situation where Kill rates are higher, but that doesn't mean the game is poorly balanced. It just means the statistics are flawed from the get-go when you look at flat Kills because it isn't taking into account the tides of Players flowing in and out. The DEV do understand this, however, and don't think it is their job to try and explain it to the rabble (and I don't mean that in a negative way). Most people don't understand statistics and read numbers entirely out of context, or only in the context that appears to support the argument they constructed.
Kill rates are fine. If the data was published broken down in a way that delineated Players by "hours in the game" you would see a very different story, graphs that could tell a much more accurate tale indeed. The problem of balance, in this game, is the sheer volume of variables. We all want perfect balance, but that is a utopian ideal, and not possible. What they have achieved is remarkable all things considered. Things could be done better, but it would require a fundamental change in how people are matched up, one that is at odds with their desire to keep Ques as quick as possible. Better matching, by default, means slower Ques. We can clearly see (and feel) which priority they have chosen.
Because survivors play for fun, if they played for efficiency like killers mostly do then the killrates would be much lower but think about this: How many times does faecamping work?
How many times do 3 survivors die because they want to rescue 1 person in endgame who is far away from the gates.
Survivors are trying to make plays while playing with their friends, killers are solo so the chance of them sweating is MUCH higher.
People literally killing themselves on hook doesn't significantly increase how many people are killed on the hook?!
I am sorry but this makes no sense as one hook suicide is literally half way to 50% let alone it cripples the survivor's ability to complete gens.
Its like saying tunneling someone out of the game early doesn't effect the outcome of the game!
I don't know if you play survivor at high level but there are clearly killers you can't do anything against. Add the fact that you get potato survivors with you and the trial is dead before starting.
Honestly, being matched with survivors that don't do gens, run around, doesn't know to spread on the map and can't hold any killer more than 10 seconds... while i'm a full time red rank for 3 years and i have 1000h as a survivor is a terrible experience for me. They have to create a ranked matchmaking with a rank system that represents your skill (diamond, plat, gold, silver etc...).
I think one problem with killrates is the distribution of 0k, 1k, 2k, 3k and 4k.
One down can be enough for a 1k. You need to get badly destroyed to get 0 kills.
2k should be the rarest bc when two survivor are dead and a gen is left, all die most of the time.
3k happen most if the time only when the killer has mercy and doesnt slug.
So i think 1k and 4k is the most common result.
I very rarely see hook suicides. Saying that those are common is a blatant lie.
Because a lot of killers camp and at this point the majority if survivors in this game decide the best strategy is for all 3 to sit around the hook.
Overaltruism might be another reason.
Instead of leaving during endgame, everyone rushes to the hook and turns a 1k for the killer into a 4k.
It's anecdotal, but everything on this forum is.
Here are the latest threads created in the last 24-48 hours of survivor mains talking about how often their teammates suicide or disconnect
https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/233792/people-refusing-to-play-the-game-against-certain-killers#latest
I am sorry but its an issue that effects A LOT of people in this game.
Just because it doesn't happen to you often doesn't mean it doesn't happen to others often.
My self included as its VERY common no matter what rank I am playing on nor what side I am playing for first hook suicides.
There was also a red rank statistic published too.
It showed trends that were indicative of correct data. ie Nurse kill rate increased dramatically.
What I don't understand is this see-saw effect when all the data was an upward trend for kill rate as ranks increased. Do you mean the smaller sample size 4 man SWF games as ranks increase?
Of course it's not solid enough to determine game balance but there are statistics BHVR could publish to us that is. 4 man SWF, very experienced player statistics etc. etc.
I have nothing but respect for you, and have always found your posts pretty on the beam. However, here I have to disagree with you. I don't doubt that your personal experiences are truthful, but I would suggest that you have simply been luckier than most or play in a grouping and ranking where the behavior is less common.
Sadly, I see suicides on the hook all the time. It is so rampant that it regularly impacts whether or not I earn a Pip. I track all of my games (record them too) and right now the averages of suicides in my, personal experience are high. Moreover, if you go look at any of the threads where people discuss this issue, you will found an astounding number of people participating that feel the behavior is alright, and should be done more often.
Terms like "common" are very subjective, so it is hard to know what page we are all on.
I know there's no proof. I asked the rhretorical question to discount the claim.
No need to send me two threads from upset players. The only thing that isn't anecdotal is when BHVR gives us stats about the game. Which I would very much like to see more in every q & a. Hell release match history or something we can access.
So, then explain why the kill rates at red ranks are so high too
That is easy, because I am a Red Rank Killer. Matchmaking is awful. Some days I play against all Red Rank Survivors (or with some Purple thrown in) which is as it SHOULD be. On those days I have a hell of a fight in every match. It can go either way, and often does.
On other days (when I suspect they are testing out MMR or their Ques are backing up) I get to "Taste the Rainbow" and every match has one Red Rank, some Yellow, Brown, and perhaps a Green. It is really random, and devastating to that poor slate of Survivors. One Red Rank cannot carry a team against a Red Rank Killer. Moreover, Red Rank Killers have to go into every match giving 110%, sweaty as hell because if they don't they will lose. Things are solidly tilted in Red Rank Survivor territory. As such, when we don't get matched correctly, those ill-suited Survivors are totally rolled before we even realize we should take our foot off the gas.
Killers, in most regions, are desperately needed. Ques determine who you get matched against more than skill (sadly). That means whenever the lines start backing up, Survivors are thrown to Red Rank wolves that they are not prepared to face. That also skews the numbers.
At least you admitted you had no actual interest in evidence and just wanted to discount a claim you don't like I guess...
I don't like the stats they release, because they are wildly incomplete. Without any breakdown by playtime we can't tell how much of the killrate is due to noobstomps. Without stats on hook states we can't really tell for certain how well suicides impact it, and have they even mentioned whether or not they consider a dc a kill? Because they give points like they do, but the result screen shows the dc.
It would be like me saying "I buy 2 bags of dog food per day" sure it seems like a ton right? Maybe I eat it, maybe I just don't understand money, maybe I'm a hoarder? All those are possibilities, but if I add in the context of "I run a dog rescue" then the food purchases make a lot more sense. (I don't do either btw, just a random example)
No arguments there. It's the only real thing ever released though which is why it's got so much attention.
Hopefully uphill from here.
Wrong. Stats are few months old and the new matchmaking wasn't on. Red rank killers were matched against red rank survivors. You take extra events and consider them as a general case so :
Statistics are the most accurate data you can get to study anything. When the population is big enough (here hundreds of thousands trials), you can admit scientifically that the stats have a 99.9% accuracy and totally represent the state of the game.
I won't loose my time to explain how statistics work, you can google it if you want to learn more about them.
1 year ago devs have released more complete stats with DC rate, suicide rate etc and a guy on the forum took those stats and excluded all suicide+DC trials. Results were the same with a kill rate around 68% in red rank games. But ye you will still find something to say it's worng blabla.
As I mentioned to another commentator in this thread, it is the context that matter. Red Rank Killers ideally would face all Red Rank (or with some Purple) slates of Survivors. When we do, matches are not 4K slaughters. I can assure you of that. I'm fighting for my very sanity against all Red Rank Survivors; it is a bloody, hard fought mess. That is as it should be. I track all my games and lots of different markers. While I wish it was better, my average against all Red Rank Survivors is (gasp) averaging out to about 2K per match overall. In some games I get none, and some games I get all four, but the overall average does round back down. The Bell Curve is a harsh mistress. Someday I hope to be a Superstar like Otz and be able to 4K in a reliable way, but the game is not balanced around people like Otz (thank God).
A simple yes would of sufficed. Aha.
Thanks for your reply. It's a bloody, hard fought mess. Well said.
You guys need to level up the way you think things.
I agree with you for everything you have said but you miss something.
If you consider the red rank playerbase only (killers & survivors), on tens of thousands players (maybe between 50k/100k all platform), we can admit statistically that the skill repartition in those red ranks is following the Normal Distribution Law.
To make it short, in those red ranks there are as much trash killers than trash survivors and as much god survivor than god Killers.
Once you admit this, mixing all of them in hundreds of thousands trials will give you extremely accurate stats. So stats are accurate and the kill rate is 70% period !
Then about suicide & DC that affects the game. Sure those behaviors affect the stats if they happen often. We can postulate two things :
1) they happen enough to impact the stats
2) they don't happen enough to impact the stats
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1) If they happen enough then the question is why does survivors DC/suicide against Spirit, Deathslinger, Hag and not against other killers that, strangely have the exact same kill rate ? Because those killers are OP.
2) if they don't happen enough then the is no talk about it. And i think there are not happening enough to impact the global stats, why ? Because we all know that DC and suicides happen mostly against Hag/Deathslinger/Spirit/Freddy and let's say PH. DC and suicides almost never happens against a Trapper, a clown, Pig or Blight and what can we see ?
Deathslinger has a lower kill rate than all of the killers listed above and the kill rate is still around 70% for all those killers.
Sorry champ, but I'm not wrong. Officially the new matchmaking isn't even on NOW. I say "officially" because I suspect that it has been turned on and off for testing purposes regularly since it was turned off last Fall. "Taste the Rainbow" is a very real thing, which happens to me (at least) every other day. About the only time I don't see it show up in a reliable pattern is during events.
PS: I find your trying to explain statistics to me very entertaining considering what my Degree is in, but to each their own.
It is on :). They activated it by mistake with the last hotfix.
Really? If so, I'm sad to say... it still doesn't work then. :)
Survivorsplaining!!!
Ye it doesn't, it's terrible.
Where is your source for this? I've been looking and can't find anything.
The problem with those red rank statistics is that red rank by now is no index of skill anymore. I read of people reaching red rank survivor or killer in a few months. They have less than 200 hours in this game and got there with not the skill which should be indicated by the highest rank.
Rank 1 is simply a limit and could be compared to gold rank in lol, of they didn't have platin and above. Both are just a matter of dedication and time invested. (Of course there are always worse player unable to even reach there because of real potatoes gameplay).
Red ranks are more of a crucible of all kinds of skill levels and therefore also not a clear indicator for statistics. And another problem is how easy it is for either side to get there. We don't know if both sides have the same mixture of skill levels in them, for example it might be that killer side is 80% veterans while survivor CAN be carried by swf (any group size) and the amount of veterans/really high skill player comparable to the killer is way lower in percentage. This would mean that many less skilled red rank survivor (aka red rank potatoes in content creator terms) get still rekt by the killer or do still bad plays and/or suicid on first Hook.
But the data given by bhvr gives no indicator of any of that. A better metric would maybe be Killrates in relation to prestige/account level or playtime.
You're 100% right.
Hopefully the rank system is subject to change where THE best players are at the top. Not this plateau of people varying between gold - challenger in rank 1. Well said.
it's heavily dependant on rank and what you play or how you play.
This will never happen. Why ? Because developpers are terrible at their own game, i mean they are really not high skilled so how can you create a working matchmaking while you don't even know what it is to be a good player ?
Suicides, DC's, Mori's, NOED, face camping, poor matchmaking, poor rank reset, poor ranking system, people do rift quests instead of playing to win etc etc
There are literally many, many factors this game has that artificially inflate kill rates that aren't related to "game balance" which is what we're typically determining when looking at kill rates.
Kill rates have way too many outside factors skewing them to be used for balance at all.
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While they have their own flaws as well, hooks or pips would still give a much better gauge than kill rates would in terms of measuring the games balance.
IE I think if we looked at hooks or pips for killer we would see a "balance image" that looks completely the opposite of what we see in kills. Kills are just so misleading.
Of course, this is highly subjective. But most of my solo matches result in an escape. Unless someone rage quits.
If you´ve never seen survivors instantly run to Freddy and then suicide on the hook, despite other survivors coming for the rescue, then you must be really lucky.
Moris also inflated the kill rate. Those statistics are from before the mori nerf.
So is Riot Games at LoL. They're terrible at their game. Trust me.
They have a symmetrical MOBA which does make it easier to produce a good ranked system.
For DBD they need to be seperating the best killers from rank 1 killer as well as the best survivors at rank 1.
To answer your final question through thorough input from the community. Which is something that this company does struggle with but has gotten better lately. They have a monopoly for the genre right now but who says that will last forever?
Generally because these are your teammates half the time
I didn't even read all you wrote, same i don't want to sound condescending but everything you write is comparing said killer against SWF.
"He lacks map control so exploit it and gen rush" ye ok in SWF, what about team of soloQ/duoQ which represents 95% of trials in red ranks ? Ah ye, no counter.
When we talk about balance in this game, we have to take in account the general cases which is 1 killer vs a non SWF squad.
On the competitive scene (that almost doesn't exist on DbD), the tournament rules can be tweaked to balance killer vs SWF.
In good hands, Deathslinger, Spirit, Nurse, PH, Hag are impossible to beat if you are not in a SWF...
(i have read the end of your post)
The devs themselves said don't look at killrates.
There's a ton of factors that make killrates higher than they would normally be:
Altruism and a "we all escape" mentality more often than not kills 1 or even all 3 additional survivors.
The only Riftchallenges on killer that would dampen their killrates are the ones that require specific killers thus making for example ghostfacemains play nurse while most other Riftchallenges can be done with normal gameplay and slight perk alteration which so happens to be not much of a big deal on killers since killers have mostly mediocre perks anyways. (No, Pop is not even close to stuff like DS/DH) while Survivor Riftchallenges basically require them to throw the game more often than not.
Holding M1 is boring as ######### so many survivors will actually go out of their way to engage with the killer while killers often look for weak links.
Survivor achievements also are heavily slanted against survivors while killerachievements are mostly not except for stuff like Twins if you try to brute-force those.
Survivors are playing with their friends to have a good time most of the time while the killer sits there alone and has the only objective to kill 4 survivors, who's gonna play more sweaty?
Did I mention over-altruism? Trying to rescue against bubba/NOED etc?
If all survivors did was:
Not 3 gen themselves
Hold W as soon as the killer comes and die FAR off the gens or run away from gens.
Do gens
At most send 1 person to save
No altruism in endgame
Then killrates would be MUCH lower but the game would be boring to death.
Just watch depip squad, yeah they're expert survivors but NOTHING that they did cannot be done by most people, since most maps are so resource heavy that predropping 1 of those 20+ pallets does not matter if all your teammates just hold m1 while you try to run the killer in a different area.
All that is in theory and it's why it doesn't matter since almost nobody plays like this. As McLean said when asked about it: "So what".
I've never heard of anyone else arguing this for deathslinger and PH especially while also not mentioning freddy. I've played games against really good players of each and did well. Hag isn't as bad as a lot of people make her out to be. I could see a better case for spirit or nurse though