When devs say survivor escape rate is under 50%
Where are they pulling the data from? The game as a whole, or are they looking just at certain ranks? Is the escape rate lower or higher at high ranks? Just curious, as I see that 'but survivors rate of escape is under 50%' thrown around left and right when it comes to perk balancing.
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Yes, but these 4ks are considering the fact hatch stand off no longer exists. Where as a killer you lost practically no matter what and resorted to slugging. The fact that a mechanic is broken doesn't make this one not balanced. The fact is hatch is now a race. Not only do you fail all gens, you fail hatch, if you fail both doors (Other than on the same wall) that is a you problem. The 4k rate has increased due to survivors not being able to force hatch. Excluding Dc's count matches that played out to the extent of what the game sets up to be a match a 4v1 not a 3v1 and a dc or a mid game stop screw yous all I am out. I certainly believe that the escape rate is not >80% however, it seems lower than what I experience as a survivor. My matches are generally 3+ out if you exclude nurse and spirit games for me.
I generally go by the Trend of the Graph. I excluded the offset as Peanits suggested because R1's depip to R2 and that is where the stats are counted. (We should really bring back those 3 safety R1 pips.) However, if you continue the trend line it certainly seems higher than 54% even considering a marginal gap.
Just how many points do you think they were missing a pip by? Do you think they were all constantly deranking?
Do you know what a safety pip is?
Yes. Are you going to answer my question?
Let me just do what you do and pull a random number out and pretend that it has any relevance.
i think they were missing a pip by sixty-seven thousand, eight hundred and twenty four points.
(this is the bit where your tell me sixty-seven thousand, eight hundred and twenty four has no relevance but I'll continue to bring it up as if it does)
Your post proves my point though? I am not arguing whether EGC is balanced or not, I never was and that’s where you seem to be focusing. All I am saying is point blank that killer is getting significantly more kills now with the existence of EGC than they were before. You just said it yourself that killer practically lost no matter what if they didn’t slug. So even if you call EGC balanced, 1v1 going from unbalanced to balanced = a lot more kills. And a lot more kills= a significant decrease in the escape rates. So if you felt survivors were escaping at 60-65% clip before EGC, which featured an unbalanced end game, there’s no doubt that number would be much lower today with EGC. That’s my entire point as most people don’t even acknowledge these stats were before EGC and included MoM.
Again, I’m not arguing about EGC being killer sided, it is but I really don’t even care. This is entirely about the impact EGC has had on escapes WHEN COMPARED to non EGC games.
As for the DC thing, so a game plays out, a survivor leaves on death hook, killer gets 4K....and it’s fine to exclude this entire game ? That would very much skew things
I thought it was 420 pips. :D
Actually I thought the stats were more recent than Pre-EGC. Considering stats are frequently given during dev streams.
sixty-seven thousand, eight hundred and twenty four >:{
420! >:{
Those who maintained rank 1 when they first did the stats survived 81% of the time... I dont think bhvr would have gotten that number out of thin air...
The Doctor pictures stats are from before EGC but during MoM.
The 43% stat is also from that time.
The state peanits just gave you was from last week.
I would like a source for this.
I still don't see where 43% keeps coming up because the graph clearly shows like 60% for PC unless you are talking about average between console and PC.
Are you saying it's nowhere near sixty-seven thousand, eight hundred and twenty four ?
Other way around. Those who survived were more easily able to maintain rank 1. Pipping without surviving at high ranks is nigh-impossible, and since the stats were taken at the end of trials, the survival rate was naturally skewed toward a very high number.
The Doctor graph shows an 80% chance of survival, @Peanits later clarified by saying,
"I confirmed this with the data team this morning, the 80% isn't exactly accurate. The stats are taking your rank after the match, not the rank you went in with. The data was also collected between April 1st and April 7th, when it was significantly harder for survivors to pip. As a result, those who died typically deranked back to rank 2 and their death would be counted as a rank 2 death. It was very rare for someone to die at rank 1 and remain rank 1, hence the incredibly high survival rate.
Basically most of the deaths were counting towards rank 2, not rank 1, so the escape rate was much higher than it should be.
I received a stat for the escape rate from the 11th and it was around a 43% escape rate"
It came after they relaxed the pipping requirements and flooded high ranks with survivors who shouldn't be there.
Yes, I am! I got my numbers from a very notable source, what about you? >:v
no no no it's definitely
sixty-seven thousand, eight hundred and twenty four
I saw that number once, and I'll defend it until I'm banned.
The number is sitting right on the graph... that's the number I'm talking about.... the players who maintained rank 1 when bhvr "calculated the stats wrong" survived 81% of the time roughly..... like that stat still exists bhvr didn't just say "oh rank 1 has this percentage" .... like that 81% is the best players
Except it is wrong,
"I confirmed this with the data team this morning, the 80% isn't exactly accurate. The stats are taking your rank after the match, not the rank you went in with. The data was also collected between April 1st and April 7th, when it was significantly harder for survivors to pip. As a result, those who died typically deranked back to rank 2 and their death would be counted as a rank 2 death. It was very rare for someone to die at rank 1 and remain rank 1, hence the incredibly high survival rate.
Basically most of the deaths were counting towards rank 2, not rank 1, so the escape rate was much higher than it should be.
I received a stat for the escape rate from the 11th and it was around a 43% escape rate"
No, the losses are calculated for R2. Which brings R1 stats down. That means you are only getting the majority of Survivals from R1 or deaths that resulted in a saftey pip. Any form of depips/disconnects counted against R2. Which skews towards a higher escape rate.
In theory, yes. They are tracked, but it's a little more complicated to get than a simple kill rate or escape rate, so unfortunately I don't have that handy. I would need to pester the data team for that, and they're pretty busy as is.
Too busy skewing numbers in the killers favour to make the game look more balanced?
/s
Surviving was still a big importance towards pipping back then..... I'm not going to disagree with you... these percentages are only rough... ROUGH estimates.... but I think that 81% is the most accurate since it was a smaller portion of players..
I will defend 420 until I am banned!
The 81% is not true, how many times can someone explain this to you?
You're wrong, though. It's precisely because the data was gathered in such a way that both the 60% and 80% are unreliable. You'd need a weighted average, which would tell you the (average) survival rate at ranks 1 and 2. That number is between 60% and 80%.
No, the doctor graph stats are the latest and that features MoM and no EGC. I wouldn’t be going on about this if it included it 🙂 It’s the whole basis for my argument, I’m very curious to see a new set of stats as this was a significant change that benefited killer. There’s no doubt in my mind escape rates have dropped, just a question of how much. Hard to put a number on it.
The number was not accurate. There was an error when retrieving those stats. It took your rank after the game, not before. At rank 1, depipping means deranking, so anyone who died would have almost definitely deranked (unless they did insanely well), making their death count as a rank 2 death. That leaves only the people who lived or did very, very well in the rank 1 section of the stats.
It was actually 43%.
Oh I wasn't speaking of a kill rate. Simply just all the hook states of the matches looked at and take the average. Although, you are right they are probably busy with the Vanilla experiments and other internal testing. Best not to pester them.
And those players who maintained rank 1 and did very well are the players I am speaking about.... you guys found the stats for the cream crop prettymuch even though "you did the stats wrong"
I'm really interested on seeing the average amount of hooks in every game.
Right.
Only your comparing the cream of the crop to absolutely any killer that ended up at rank 1. I could take a champion peewee hockey team and have them play against the best NHL team out there, but that would still go very poorly.
I'm not talking overall rank1 that number is ofcourse going to be a bit lower then 81 and I agree with you on that certain percentage give.... I'm saying that the 81% that the charts give are the best of the best players.... that is a stat that exists and peanits confirmed it in a reply..... the stats only kept track of those who maintained their rank 1 status and back then it was exceptionally difficult making those players the cream of the crop....and since it's such a small portion of players, it has to be the most accurate stat bhvr has put out.... even though they meant to calculate everyone...
Basically it shows that only 20% of those in rank one who died were good enought to still pip and stay at the rank. you could say that that is shows 80% of those who died depipped so the stats counted them towards the rank 2 figures.
Now going by that if there were 1000 players that would mean 100% of those who died would compare to the 80% of those who lived. That would mean 444 players escaped while 556 died and comes to the number of 44.4% actual escapes over the playerbase which is actually 1% away from the devs redone stats.
Oh sweet baby jesus are we still complaining about the pipping requirements
Ranks are based on THE NUMBER OF SURVIVORS AND KILLERS NECESSARY TO MAKE THE MATCHMAKING BEARABLE, period. They're a matchmaking tool. So the number of survivors in red ranks is ALWAYS meddled with by the devs to ensure good matchmaking. There's no magic scale of how good a survivor or killer needs to be to """deserve""" to be in red ranks.
You could make the exact same argument for the other side, saying that killer pipping was way too easy in relation to survivor pipping before so you had to make it harder because the noob killers kept letting everyone escape, and it had to be made harder. (Which is a point that could seriously be made because pipping hasn't been even remotely hard as killer for a long time).Thankfully the devs aren't that elitist and went with the other way around.
Edit for clarification: I'm not implying that the requirements change all the time, I'm just saying that the change that happened was very necessary because pipping was too hard and the matchmaking suffered.
I still don't think ranking should be taken this seriously in this game.
Also solo survivor x killer is pretty balanced so the stats being what they are without counting DCs doesn't surprise me much
Also ty @Peanits for clearing stuff up you the real mvp
I would think only reasons why dc and suicide counts cause killers gets points for both of them could be wrong
Not even the fact it counts D/C's, these stats mean nothing really. Only stats that should be used to balance the game are non-D/C games. and how many are Alive/Dead when the last Gen is completed. Not after the match as a whole.
How many times has the Kill rate been inflated due to Greedy altruistic Survivors? Who JUST CAN'T leave that ONE POOR DUDE who got caught at the end to die? Who all end up getting killed for no other reason than Greed for points? Turning an easy 3 escape, into a 3k or 4k for no other reason than points. Balancing a game based on that is foolhardy.
Why would you balance a game based on Survivors doing something totally optional, that they don't have to do at all?
Those stats are biaised.
A DC will increase the chances of a "no one escaped" game.
GG
Thanks mate. Just saw your comment after mine.
Better nerf nurse kappa.
I'd love to know the Nurse's escape rate without taking DCs into account. Her total kill rate is like 78% iirc, I bet it's not too much lower than that.
escape rate for survivor is something between 2-3% against my Nurse 😏 but good job for showing some stats @Peanits Keep it up!
Dev statistics are false, everyone knows this
Lemme get my tinfoil hat too real quick
i just think the % for rank 1 gameplay is a bit too low is all. after all this is the people that should know what theyre doing, and they're only a few % above rank 20s in comparison
Dude, I'm more willing to believe the stats even if it's not my experience than believe they're literally fabricating statistics
The stats aren't false; just not very helpful.
I maintain that win:loss stats in DbD can't be used to make any meaningful interpretation of the state of game balance; they in fact reflect the match-making and ranking systems. Heat-maps of where the most up and down-ranking happens during a monthly-cycle might shed some light on this.
Then there is player-specific information to consider. I regard survivors as having become demonstrably worse at the game; older players have left, newer ones have come and learned bad habits from the dominant meta and have such little knowledge of how it used to be. This is why so many regard the Nurse as 'ignoring all game mechanics' because 'all game mechanics' to them simply means 'looping, pallets and vaults'.
A handful of people that know what they're doing could be winning 80% of matches, but they can never play enough matches to counter-balance the vast numbers of people losing 50-80% of the time. The ranking system does not distinguish very well between average people playing a lot and top-players; down-ranking rarely seems to happen(hence the need for information about this). If the ranking system worked to divide players by ability as incrementally as possible, we should see as much down-ranking as up-ranking.
I think in that sense the 1-20 ranking system is flawed and a global ranking system might be better: listing the best-performing player at the top and then each person below them. Currently, loads of people can share the same ranking in the current system. In a ladder system though, every rank is unique: there is only a single No.1 and a single No.13,008.