When devs say survivor escape rate is under 50%

Where are they pulling the data from? The game as a whole, or are they looking just at certain ranks? Is the escape rate lower or higher at high ranks? Just curious, as I see that 'but survivors rate of escape is under 50%' thrown around left and right when it comes to perk balancing.

Comments

  • @Orion said:

    https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/comment/621631#Comment_621631

    You're wrong, though. It's precisely because the data was gathered in such a way that both the 60% and 80% are unreliable. You'd need a weighted average, which would tell you the (average) survival rate at ranks 1 and 2. That number is between 60% and 80%.

    If you got the average of rank 2 and rank 1 survival rates (PC):

    X1L1JQEBEOMA.jpg

    You get approximately 70% which is still very high. However, keep in mind that a lot of things changed from then so I suggest to not make conclusions on this number alone.


    Is this what you're talking about Orion?

  • I've been wondering about this for a while, cause they last released saying that on avg 2 people get killed and 2 escape proving that the game was pretty balanced lol. That was way before all the nerds to survivors and killer buffs, plus with the endgame collapse that your lucky to escape without wakeup. Most killers find hatch instantly and close it. If the doors are close together, you don't stand a chance alone. 30-40% way balanced lol.

  • @NMCKE said:

    https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/comment/621638#Comment_621638

    If you got the average of rank 2 and rank 1 survival rates (PC):

    https://us.v-cdn.net/6030815/uploads/526/2VANVTLF11AV.jpg

    You get approximately 70% which is still very high. However, keep in mind that a lot of things changed from then so I suggest to not make conclusions on this number alone.

    Is this what you're talking about Orion?

    Yes, except it needs to be a weighted average, since there isn't an equal number of players at ranks 1 and 2.

  • @gantes said:

    https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/comment/623089#Comment_623089

    Dude, I'm more willing to believe the stats even if it's not my experience than believe they're literally fabricating statistics

    fair enough, i guess we're all entitled to our opinions

  • Running no mither increases this percent by 100

  • @AzdrubaelVect said:

    https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/comment/621515#Comment_621515

    Depip squad, nuff said. If you watch optimal survivors you'll realize that m1 killers don't even have enough time to get more than 2 kills unless they tunnel like crazy.

    Almost nobody plays like that? Yes, that's a fact but it also doesn't matter because balancing in competitive games is done by using the highest possible value and skill ceiling, not the mediocre or lowest.

    the stats don't matter if most people don't play competitively.

    What about specifically the stats of the people that DO play competitively?

  • @AzdrubaelVect said:

    https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/comment/627460#Comment_627460

    Rank 1 is not automatically competitive play. If I can run around the killer on temple of purgation for 3 minutes even as a mediocre survivor then something's wrong. Does that mean I'll survive? No because the others are having fun on discord with me sweating like crazy but if you have a full team of sweat then the devs fully well know it's impossible for m1 to kill them

    Now now. YOUR the one who brought up rank. I never said anything about specifically rank 1. There are other more reliable ways of tracking that sort of thing.

    For example the average survival of the top X Survivors vs the average kill rate of the top X Killers

  • @AzdrubaelVect said:

    https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/comment/627480#Comment_627480

    Top X doesn't mean much in this game when even somebody as mediocre as truetalent is considered TopX I'm sorry.

    The TopX experiment was done by the depip squad already and not THAT much has changed since then except for maps being even more of an RNG fest than before. (You literally cannot win against decent survivors on temple of purgation if you're a regular M1 killer because of the unmindgameable-huge loop safe pallets there) not to mention maps like Haddonfield in combination with balanced. If you play absolutely optimally as survivor with no fun in mind you will escape 90% of the time.

    The issue is not with casual play, no killer complains about unorganized solosurvivors running funbuilds. The issue becomes when you get matched against teams stacking second chances above second chances above second chances. The survivor ones are WAY harder and more timeconsuming to counter than the killer meta.

    BBQ? You Can hide.

    Nurse? Don't heal in TR (it's no heal meta anyways so Nurses only works on stealth killers who can be looped way to long anyways).

    RUIN is not a huge deal for survivors who put thousands of hours into mastering skillchecks.

    NOED will get you 1 kill in endgame because optimal survivors don't run around clumped up and will not do altruistic plays unless NOED is cleansed.

    Enduring+Spirit Fury? Survivors will drop the pallet early which is not an issue since there's around 20 on each map buying you enough time for 5 gens to pop if you tell your mates where the pallets are used up.

    Pop Goes the weasel is a snowball perk, you won't down topsurvivors fast enough and great survivors will do multiple gens spread out.

    Bloodwarden is countered by 99ing gates.

    DS on the other hand buys you at least 60 seconds or may give you a free escape if you go down near the exit after a BT rescue in endgame and SWF teams will pick up the slugged guy during the match, if you guard him you waste too much time and lose gens. That's a lost hook there on top of BT mending being a minor nuissance.

    BT should be reverted to it's former state where survivors rescued by BT go down after a while if outside of the killer's terror radius.

    Nerf Selfcare but buff healing times in general. Selfcare should be 75% slower healing at least, currently there's no difference between getting healed by another survivor or the other survivor simply spending his 16 additional seconds doing a gen. If Sloppy butcher is used there's no point in even healing at all so I'd suggest buffing the time it takes to heal other survivors to 8 seconds (making it 10 with sloppy) and nerfing Selfcare to counteract this healing buff. Ontop of that buffing Autodidact to work with selfcare but at a 50% worse rate when healing yourself of course, to counteract sloppy butcher. Survivors would also have a perk to counter slugging more effectively with my improved autodidact.

    Pallets should become safe again but looping them should not be a thing, this would buff weaker survivor players in general who rely on pallets way more than highrank survivors, for this the devs would have to fix killerhitboxes so they don't de-accelerate during pallet loops and keep their 15% advantage.

    If you made all these changes then the devs could also finally look at camping and tunneling since killers would have no reason to sweat as hard as they currently need to to get kills.

    Like for example a survivor not regressing for X seconds after hook to de-incentivize camping but also slow down gen-progression while at least 1 survivor is hooked.

    I'm not saying survivors are OP in general, I'm saying that the optimal playstyles need to go.

    Nerf stuff that the majority of your playerbase isn't using anyways. (DS, BT, Adrenawin, optimized exploiting of the killer hitbox) and buff survivors in other areas.

    I am not contesting your conclusion. Just the idea that statistics can't be used.

  • Basing any opinion on flawed stats gathered throughout one week is just asking to be misled. Applies for both sides of the coin.

    You'll never know the real, absolute truthful stats. No one has any obligation to show them, anyway.

    Play the game as is, or not.


  • @AzdrubaelVect said:

    https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/comment/621515#Comment_621515

    Depip squad, nuff said. If you watch optimal survivors you'll realize that m1 killers don't even have enough time to get more than 2 kills unless they tunnel like crazy.

    Almost nobody plays like that? Yes, that's a fact but it also doesn't matter because balancing in competitive games is done by using the highest possible value and skill ceiling, not the mediocre or lowest.

    the stats don't matter if most people don't play competitively.

    Yes yes, we all know about the year and half old study done by Prof. Marth88 who was going OUT of his way to play like no other team usually does, 99% of games aren't against people that played like Marth & his team.

    Lets not forget the exhaustion, ds, pick up speed, less pallets and changes to the game since then and pretend that anything Marth88 did in the depip squad is remotely relevant, devs have released stats 3 or 4 times now and survival rate was always below 50% at rank 1.

    Too many killers are getting angry they aren't 4King every game, be happy with your 2+ kills because that's FAIR.

    Too many people on this forum think they're better than they are, probably me included, the difference is I'm not going to whinge and cry because I only got a 2K my last couple of games.

  • It shouldn't include disconnects, but more importantly it shouldn't include games WITH disconnects at all.

    @Peanits said disconnects usually happen when you're losing, but that simply isn't the case in a huge amount of matches. So many people DC because they don't like the killer, they don't like the map, they go down first etc, none of which equates to actually being likely to die in a match.

    Furthermore a disconnect swings the game heavily in the killer's favour and makes in FAR harder for the remaining survivors to live, especially early on.

    Beyond knowing the statistics on that, I'd be interested to see data on games without a mori offering. I'm not a fan of instaheals or keys, but moris far and beyond have the most impact on a match and to me don't feel like reasonable data for survival in a normal match. Not in the least since it's been a very common topic recently to rework moris completely due to their unfair nature of removing 2/3 of a survivor's game.

    Obviously the vanilla experiment has been running, so we'll hopefully see results from that.

  • @anarchy753 said:

    It shouldn't include disconnects, but more importantly it shouldn't include games WITH disconnects at all.

    @Peanits said disconnects usually happen when you're losing, but that simply isn't the case in a huge amount of matches. So many people DC because they don't like the killer, they don't like the map, they go down first etc, none of which equates to actually being likely to die in a match.

    Furthermore a disconnect swings the game heavily in the killer's favour and makes in FAR harder for the remaining survivors to live, especially early on.

    Beyond knowing the statistics on that, I'd be interested to see data on games without a mori offering. I'm not a fan of instaheals or keys, but moris far and beyond have the most impact on a match and to me don't feel like reasonable data for survival in a normal match. Not in the least since it's been a very common topic recently to rework moris completely due to their unfair nature of removing 2/3 of a survivor's game.

    Obviously the vanilla experiment has been running, so we'll hopefully see results from that.

    Vanilla stats mean even less because nobody is going into matches without perks 99.99% of the time.

  • @Seanzu said:

    https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/comment/627580#Comment_627580

    Vanilla stats mean even less because nobody is going into matches without perks 99.99% of the time.

    Vanilla stats are less meaningful than regular stats, but I'm still interested to see what they show. I think killers are FAR worse off in the experiment than survivors, as survivors still have all their basic tools where most killers are heavily add on reliant before even considering perks.

  • @AzdrubaelVect said:

    https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/comment/627583#Comment_627583

    I'd say it's the other way around, except for ruin on the odd chance of not being found no killer perk heavily impacts the game as much as being denied multiple hooks and downs. Think about it, DS alone gives 4 hookstates if you spread it out evenly which a good team will do, Borrowed time also saves your ass at least once per survivor unless the killer has no TR which is up to 8 additional hookstates. The fattest combos that killers can muster up require survivors to fail first.

    Plenty of survivors play and manage without any 'meta' perks. Killers are losing all detection perks, which covers BBQ, one of the most common tools to gain a direction to go after hooking rather than just wandering aimlessly.

    EVERYTHING to slow the game down is removed. Not only does that include ruin and pop goes the weasel, there's 0 chance of noed so there's literally no reason to spend time on a totem.

    Most killers are also incredibly reliant on their add ons, even killers that are considered strong are vastly weaker without them. Billy loses charge speed and steering, meaning it's harder to get a down, and most jungle gyms become easy ways to keep him from hitting you because he can't charge the saw quickly. Spirit loses any bonus speed, cooldown or chargeup time on her haunt which greatly lowers how much it can be used, how far it goes, and how much time the survivor has to react before you're even moving.

    Killers are far worse without perks AND add ons than survivors are without perks.

  • Escape rate at the highest rank was 43% when MoM was a usable perk (and OP at the time) however it was actually lower as if someone was rank 1 depipped in a game where they died, they would be counted as a rank 2 death.


    Edit: my mistake, it was higher than 43%; 43 was the number found after taking the factor I mentioned into account. Even so, MoM was meta then.

  • A better question would be, what is the survivor pip rate?

    Answer these questions.

    Do you care if you die when you know you have secured your pip?

    Are you more likely to do stupid things that result in your death?

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