I have calculated odds for Kobe so you don't have to
Base: 4% which means 12% if you try 3 times so you will Kobe at least once every 9 games with maxed out slippery meat about halves the games but there is a 4% chance you will still fail but that's only counting one half the second half doubles your chances giving you a Kobe every 2 or 3 games open handed gives you an extra 18% giving you a 66% chance there can be 4 in play giving you an over all 120% chance Vigo's jar of salty lips increases your chance by 3% it stacks giving you overall 132% chance and luck adds together so it doesn't increase it giving you a 56% chance per attempt at max
Sorry if my math is a little off but this about the luck you get
Comments
This is all I saw.
ok then
That somehow makes more sense to me than what the op wrote.
I find survivors have a 90% chance when I am stomping them
A 100% chance when all of them are hooked or in the dying state.
He lost that match
A 4% chance with 3 chances doesntt equal a 12% chance though.
Thats like saying if you flip a coin 3 times, you have a 150% chance to land heads. Its just not true.
Not to offend or be a dick but this is like, 8th grade math stuff my dude
To be fair, he's actually not that far off here depending on how you round. He just got close to the right answer with the wrong process.
The math is here is actually simple.
1 - (chance of failure) ^ number of attempts
1 - (0.96)^3
1 - 0.884736
0.115264 or ~11.5%
wrong I did my research and it said each attempt has a base 4% chance
Yes. That is a widely known fact. Every attempt has a 4% chance to kobe. That does not mean that 3 chances gives you a 12% chance to kobe. Thats just not how percentages work. If it was adding extra modifiers through perks and lips and such, yes you can simply add those percentages to each attempt. But you can just add multiple attenpts like that. Thats not how percentages work
No in this game luck is determined by basic addition
Alright, friend. Im just gonna agree to disagree and move on. Have a nice day.
Basic 8th grade math is that odds are multiplied if you have more than one try.
E. G.
The probability to toss two heads in a row is 1/2 *1/2 = 1/4 = 25%
The probility to toss one head or more in two tosses is 1/4 + 1/4 +1/4 = 3/4 = 75%
In my math class we called that Diagramm a "tree" the mathematical rule is:
If you follow the branches you multiply the odds.
if you have to consider more than one branch you add up the odds.
For your example: The probability to toss atleast one head in three tosses is 87,5%
This is actually wrong, though I wish it were this simple.
Base
The actual odds are calculated differently, because each attempt is known as an independant event. It doesn't take into account any previous attempts, or any future attempts; the odds remain a fixed 4/100 (1/25) chance of escaping with every attempt.
The chance of failure is 24/25, or 0.96. This is rolled three times, and so the chance for one survivor to fail all 3 of their hook attempts is (0.96)^3 or 0.884736. To figure out the chance of escaping one of those attempts, you then do 1-0.884736, or 0.115264. 11.5264%
Therefore the chance for one survivor out of four to successfully escape is calculated at 1-((0.96)^12) or 0.38729024267. 38.729024267%
Slippery Meat
This perk not only increases luck but also the chances to escape. For the sake of simplicity, I'll just work from the highest perk tier (+3 attempts, +4% luck).
This means that the chance of failure is now 92/100, or 0.92. This is rolled 6 times, and so the chance for one survivor to fail all 6 escape attempts is (0.92)^6, or 0.606355001344. The chances of escaping one of those attempts is 1-0.606355001344, or 0.393644998656. 39.3644998656%
Therefore the chance for one survivor out of four, all of whom use the perk, to successfully escape is calculated at 1-((0.92)^24), or 0.86482142738880985506033742771064. 86.482142738880985506033742771064%
Naturally these odds differ when there's a combiantion of perk users.
Luck offerings
The maximum luck offering that can be burned is Vigo's Jar Of Salty Lips, which increases luck for all survivors by 3%. For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to assume that 4 VJOSL were burnt.
The chance of failure is now 84/100, or 21/25. This is rolled 3 times. The chance for a complete failure is (0.84)^3, or 0.592704. The chances of escaping one of those attempts is 1-0.592704, or 0.407296. 40.7296%
Therefore the chance of one survivor out of four to escape is calculated at 1-((0.84)^12), or 0.87658969298. 87.658969298
Up the ante
There are many different combinations of luck this perk can give, and so for my own sake I'm going to assume one survivor uses this perk at T3, and all 4 survivors remain alive in the trial.
Fail chance = 0.87, rolled 3 times. Total fail = 0.658503, chance for escape in one attempt = 0.341497. 34.1497%
Total chance in a match = 0.81196831779.
Also here is 4 survivors with the perk, with 4 alive.
Fail chance = 100-(0.09*4) = 100-0.36 = 0.64, rolled 3 times.
Total fail = 0.262144, chance to escape one attempt = 0.737856. 73.7856%
Total chance in a match = 0.995277633517130354786304. 99.5277633517130354786304
Combinations of luck gets really confusing and annoying really quickly so I'm saving myself the trouble. The numbers get really big and clunky to work with.
if you want to work it out for yourself, here's the forumula:
1-(chance of failure)^[total attempts made].
TL;DR
OP got the maths wrong, here's luck but not combined together because I can't be bothered:
Base = 11.5% solo, 38.7% for 1 of the 4.
SM 3= 39.4% solo, 86.5% for 1 of the 4.
VJOSLx4 = 40.7% solo, 87.7% for 1 of the 4.
UTA 3x4 = 73.8% solo, 99.5% for 1 of the 4.
Have fun guys.
Here is more accurate kobe odds. Me playing survivor and trying to kobe - not a chance. When playing killer - somebody will always kobe
What a glorious
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Steiner Math™ is the greatest promo in wrestling history and no one will ever convince me differently.
I feel smarter now. Thanks everyone.
Honestly, slightly unrelated, but luck as a whole high key needs a rework, it's currently one of the most useless mechanics in DBD. Vigo's Salty Lips only gives a whopping 3% chance to escape per offering, making it basically worthless without a coordinated squad also burning luck offerings.
That's quick maffs
So much easier to just use the table