Breaking down the facts: Killers are massively overpowered and the grim numbers aren't even telling
'll just drop the science right away so you get the idea. Killer is obviously overpowered. Overall, survivors only survive 40-43 percent, and killers kill 57-60 percent. Of course this is bad game balance that should be fixed, but the problem is much, much worse than the stats show. Let me explain...
The devs have admitted on numerous occasions that the DC matches are excluded from the kill-rate statistics. This is actually very misleading advertising strategy which artificially inflates survival rates heavily.
Survivors DC on a frequent basis, so this will have a huge impact on survival rates. But why do they DC? Survivors primarily DC because they will most likely lose the match, because the killer is winning, because killer is so overpowered. Most players, including survivors, will finish a match if there is a good chance of winning. This is just human nature.
This is also the same reason most survivors will suicide on hook - they do so when the probability of winning is slim. So most suicides on hook would be legitimate losses for the survivor team regardless, and do not actually inflate kill rate statistics. The amount of suicide-on-hook matches that would end in survivor's favor is very, very small. Since losing 1 survivor creates a snowball effect, most of the matches where that 1 survivor has slim chance of escaping, are also matches where the entire team would have a bad outcome, and the killer would "win" with a 3-4k.
Only a tiny minority of survivor DC's and suicide-on-hooks happen when the survivor/survivors actually has/have a good chance of winning the match. Why? Because most players want to finish games they believe they can win and won't DC or suicide-on-hook.
So what this means is that the game devs are leaving out a massive number of legitimate survivor losses from the statistics, which is actually inflating survival rates dramatically and deflating kill rates immensely. This means kill rates are actually much higher than the public stats above indicate. Of course the devs don't want you to figure this out, because it would spark outrage and protests from the survivor main player base. Of course, I see right through their ploy.
Public stats have kill rates at about 60 against solo Q. But if we adjust for the excluded DC's it is almost certainly closer to a 70-80 percent kill rate. This means killers are massively overpowered. It is already common knowledge at this point that DBD is killer-sided, but it is important to realize that it is far more killer-sided than the devs and killer mains have the courage to admit.
Why won't they admit it? Well, killer mains want to win, so they very naturally welcome balance changes in their favor. They also want to feel good about winning, so they will post hoc rationalize that their win is not because killer role is OP, but because they are just so good at DBD and the survivor mains are just so bad. This is called motivated reasoning, which prevents most killer mains from objectively assessing the actual fairness of the gameplay since it favors their preferred role. This is of course not their fault, it is just human nature.
But the far more interesting question is, why are the game developers hiding the real survival rates, that are far lower than the 40-43 percent above, and closer to a measly 20-30 percent? The answer is very simple: money. Dead by Daylight is first and foremost a business, and the developers have already shown they are willing to implement a pay-to-win model by locking so many essential meta perks behind a pay wall. Of course, for good PR they will give you the opportunity to grind your way to these perks just so they can technically claim it isn't pay-to-win, but they know damn well the average player doesn't have time for this. So the incentive to simply pay up for the competitive advantage in a game with skill-based matchmaking is enormous. You see, it is all part of their carefully crafted marketing scheme orchestrated by top executives.
Now, the game being so heavily killer-sided makes perfect sense. It is the killer mains that make the devs the most money. Why? Because killer DLC is far more appealing and interesting than survivor DLC. If you buy survivor DLC, all you get is a boring cosmetic change and unlock a few unique perks that you either don't care for or can grind for if a perk is really good. But if you buy killer DLC, you get this overpowered bad-ass new monster with unique abilities that make the actual gameplay itself fresh and interesting again, while allowing you to win more without needing much skill at all. This is basically a pay-to-win model, with some very shady and dishonest advertising PR to pretend that it is not.
So how do we fix this problem? Unfortunately it cannot be fixed. As a business, the devs primary motivation will always be money. They have to make a living after all, so they can eat at fancy restaurants, go on fancy vacations, and get intoxicated at fun parties while poor survivors are suffering miserably in solo Q. The killers' primary motivation will always be winning and so the devs will always give killer mains a ridiculously unfair advantage to keep them fat and satisfied and buying more DLC for more easy wins. It's a vicious cycle that goes on endlessly until the game itself is dead. I'd love to end this on a positive note but this is a horror game after all. So this story does not have a happy ending, well, not unless you're a killer main or a DBD dev of course.
Comments
If you include data like this it would get things nerfed that are totally fine.This is solved though by sample size. BHVR has access to all the games played in a day, so things like 'got the same map four times in a row' is a very rare thing. It's statistically insignificant across the hundreds of thousands of games that get played per day if there are few dozen with that as the DC reason.
Bro, I'm a killer main and even I really it's getting ridiculous.
Seriously, recently I have faced extremely good survivors and still won because of some broken mechanic or luck stroke.
Really it's benn a lot of time since my skill was getting me through the ranks
A draw might actually be an MMR loss for killers, because the MMR formula is designed to stabilize killers at a 60% kill rate, and a draw is less than a 60% kill rate.
A draw also might actually be an MMR gain for Killers, because they killed the 2 players with more MMR than them, and the 2 escapees also had more MMR, thus giving the Killer the largest bump and smallest decrease.
Plus with the softcap of MMR that we know exists (but don't know the strength), we might have a 20 point shift for escape/kill (with reductions divided by 10 due to softcap) for a 1k to end up giving +20 MMR, and -6 (20/20/20 → 2/2/2) MMR, for a net +14 MMR.
Unless the devs become transparent about MMR, all of these fringe claims are meaningless speculation, and assuming an equal '+' for kill and equal '-' for escape is the safest guess.
You ignored the case where in example 2 both wins are 4Ks and match 1 and 2 are 1k aka losses.
Or one of them is a 0k and the other a tie.
I don't even understand why people cares 60% kill rates that much when they all loves to say "xxx is monster at high MMR", I mean even BHVR acknowledges kill rates doesn't really mean much
Pretty sure the reason why they go for 60% kill rate is simply because killer will be powerless without such statistics, it's just the way game works
And it doesn't even carry bad killer in any way, those who win 10% will win 12%, those who win 80% will win 96%, good killers will do good regardless and bad killers do bad regardless
No my Point wasnt nerf any killers or somthing. I thought the player who starded these conversation could experience some high kill rates, but it doesnt always have to do with killer OP. I think he just needs to learn the game more.
Sry keep going bringing changes to the table, while never playing Killer. First of all you cant cut a text down like that. If you would have read everything you would have seen I also have an 61% escape rate, so your Idea is I cant say somthing balance whise, because my killrate is 16% higher than normal, but my escape Rate is 21% higher than normal, so I would say I can play both sides on a decend level and because of that I am not allowed to say something? So the game balances arround survivors, that dont know the game, blame the killer for everything and killers, that arent good, get destroyed every round? If you what to kick someone out of a debate, its everyone, that doesnt know the game good enough and the players like you, that only play on side.
the middle is 3 losses for killer. killer are not overpowered. soloq plays poorly vs said killers and it amounts to large losses from poor play. SWF wins more then enough and has no issue defeat any killer. As a result, if there is no issue defeating the killer, the killer role is not overpowered. the player needs to play better to earn a stronger win record vs x killer.
Draws 👏 are 👏 not 👏 losses 👏
And if they were the middle one would be 5 losses for the survivor side so your point would be moot anyway
not wins are losses. 2 kills is a win for survivor. it breaks the killers win-streak.
It’s more likely that killers have a much higher MMR loss if a survivor escapes, than the MMR gain if a survivor dies.
In order to stabilize at a 60% kill rate, a survivor escaping would need to have an MMR loss, that is 1.5 times as much as the MMR gained when a survivor dies. Either that, or something equally as drastic needs to be done to move the kill rate from 50% to 60%.
Losses are not wins, but "not wins" are not necessarily losses.
2 kills is not a win for survivor, it's a draw.
It breaks the streak because it's a win streak, not a win or draw streak.
i believe the game is balanced around the killer having the upper hand but the survivors attempting to upset the killer. in other words, the smallest misplay from killer leads 2 kills which in my opinion is a loss. the game should be balanced around survivors upsetting the killer. Not dominating the killer with 4 man escapes. how much should killer need to misplay for that to happen is debatable.
Well I know that a 2k means the killer accomplished 50% of their objective and the survivor team accomplished 50% of theirs, I know DBD considers a 2k a draw for MMR purposes, and the main successful DBD competitor explicitly calls a 2k a draw in the end screen. So, feel free to keep believing whatever you want about the balance of the game, just understand it is in defiance of both basic math, and standards set by developers across the Asym Horror genre