Massive discrepancy between BHVR stats and reality? Solo queue seems to be ~30% winrate.
So recently there has been a few topics discussing how miserable solo queue is, with many people claiming their average winrate being around 30% or even less.
This matches my experience but as BHVR didn't give any stats to confirm, I started to look at solo queue streamers on Twitch and record how many times they win to figure out if we can make our own statistics.
RESULTS
I took the top 4 english streamers who are doing solo queue currently:
ANGRYPUG : 2 wins / 9 games - 22% escape rate (vod link)
PROBZ : 4 wins / 16 games - 25% escape rate (vod)
DOWSEY 5.5 wins / 12 games (counting hatch as 0.5) - 45% escape rate (vod)
Otzdarva : 0 win / 2 games - 0% escape rate (vod)
TOTAL: 11.5 WINS / 39 GAMES = 29.4% WINRATE
I will continue updating the results later and redo the same experience exactly next Monday with the same streamers to avoid selection bias.
Now assuming this is true, is it known/intended that the solo queue winrates are so abysmally bad? Wasn't there a statement that 50% killrate is the ideal balance? And isn't MMR supposed to bring players close to 50% regardless of balance?
Now, if even these players who have thousands of hours on DBD and probably amongst the highest MMR, can not achieve a decent winrate, how are casual players supposed to?
Comments
Are you counting escape rates for all 4 survivors or only 1 survivor? This is an extremely important distinction to make.
Otherwise you can have a scenario where 1 survivor might have led the killer on a 5 gen chase, and went down because eventually they ran out of pallets. The rest of the survivors escape, killer only gets 1 kill, and has a miserable 75% escape rate.
What would you want the devs to do about this situation, though? Because if for some reason you don't count a solo survivor as part of a team, then apparently the devs should add more pallets so he can escape.
Who cares if he won the game. He died, which is a big no no.
I've stated before that I only play solo survivor, but If it lets 2 or more survivors get out then I don't mind dying on the hook. Because I don't count escape rates as being the same as winrates.
Yeah Hexy has a crazy win rate since patch and mechanically he's pretty #########.
Hexy also was blatantly abusing the Overcharge/CoB bug the entire time despite chat telling him about it. He also frequently hard camps and tunnels, anything to win while simultaneously whining about that stuff when he plays survivor. I love the guy and I think he has the most entertaining DbD stream, but probably not the best reference for balance concerns
The fact that they are at high MMR is exactly what is getting them killed. Right now killers , specifically Blight and Nurse are completely overtuned. And at high MMR the majority of your games will be verses Blights and Nurses. Guess what games are also an almost guaranteed loss.
I've talked about this in other conversations. I main Blight, at some point with the new update I expected MMR to catch up with me, to start facing stronger survivors. And to be honest, I'm getting them. I'm getting the survivors that have unlocked every achievement, that have 3k hours or more, that are at prestige 15+ and I'm getting them back to back. And I'm winning nearly every game I play, and when I lose it is always due to a mistake that I made. And even when I make mistakes, I usually win anyways.
I agree with everything you said except I do feel he represents how a large portion of the player base actually plays.
Yup, that's what I was thinking. Pretty bad thing to bring up in such a conversation haha
My rates would be around 50-60% IF I would get competent teammates or at least teammates that actually do gens, not hide 95% of the match, crouch walk everywhere,.....etc. I usually do 2-3 Gens by myself depending on the map and Killer and perks (most slowdowns and regression don't bother me too much) so if I can do at least that we could actually escape....but no I get babies who DC/Die on first hook or just are chickens most of the match that usually die in the same manner.
Same if the killer tunneled a surv. 3vs1 is not fair
Ayrun had a 62% solo escape rate in his most recent stream, including a 7 game win streak.
10 escapes, 6 deaths.
Thank you!
You can calculate the approximate solo escape rate from earlier stats that DEVs shared with us. Last time DEVs released stats the overal escape rate was 45%. After the last patch it is surely lower. AFAIK DEVs said that solo escape rate is 12% or 15% lower, I don't remember anymore.
So, yes, solo escape rate is around 25%-30%. And that also reflects my own escape rate during solo games, it's around 25-30%.
I watched PUG last night. He was playing serious and was having a hard time. He was getting tunneled so often he said pitifully, "I'm going to have to run OTR just to get to play the game". Probz cant get a reliable streak going. Even Ayrun had a hard time (except when he played selfishly). SoloQ is in a sorry state right now. PUG can't even play for long before he throws up his hands and goes to Fall Guys. BHVR messed up SoloQ big time.