what are the chances?

LiunUK · May 16, 2021

after work last night I decided to play a few matches before bed. I played seven matches and they were all bubbas and none were the same player. I got really bored towards the end so I decided to go to bed and play again the next morning.

5 matches in, guess which killer it was?

that's right.

it was bubba.

it was all bubba.

I will hear his chainsaw in my nightmares.

help me.

dragobv · May 16, 2021

i guess you got you very unlucky

TheMadCat · May 16, 2021

Bubba loves you.

Antares2332 · May 16, 2021

Life is hard

nursewannabe · May 16, 2021

BUBBA DETECTED

LiunUK · May 16, 2021

@[Deleted User] said:
Wait it's all Bubba?

always has been

LiunUK · May 16, 2021

its bubba all the way down

MintberryCrunch · May 16, 2021

@[Deleted User] said:
My maths isn't exactly what it use to be especially probability & all that but if I worked it out right
Getting the same killer out of a selection of 23 12 games in a row is between 0.5 & 0.6%
Of course those results are futher changed if you take in killer choice popularity where certain killers are way more likely to be chosen than others but on a basic level its pretty much 0.5% or someone with an actual degree in math will come along & explain it much better.

That's somewhat right although the odds are way less, the odds of something 1/23 happening two times in a row is already about 0.19% I think, although it wouldn't be out of 23 because not every player has purchased Bubba, but this should actually make it less likely I think, even if lots have purchased him for BBQ because there's a good chance they don't actually use him.

So yea the chances should be incredibly low, but then due to the nature of probability it's not just possible but in a way inevitable that someone will get a run of loads of games against the same killer.

Still OP has been crazily unlucky, I rarely see Bubba at all, suppose rank also comes into play.

LiunUK · May 16, 2021

@MintberryCrunch said:
https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/comment/2192066#Comment_2192066
That's basically right I think, although it wouldn't be out of 23 because not every player has purchased Bubba, but this should actually make it less likely I think, even if lots have purchased him for BBQ because there's a good chance they don't actually use him.
So yea the chances should be incredibly low, but then due to the nature of probability it's not just possible but in a way inevitable that someone will get a run of loads of games against the same killer.
Still OP has been crazily unlucky, I rarely see Bubba at all, suppose rank also comes into play.

its all bubba now

MintberryCrunch · May 16, 2021

@[Deleted User] said:
My maths isn't exactly what it use to be especially probability & all that but if I worked it out right
Getting the same killer out of a selection of 23 12 games in a row is between 0.5 & 0.6%
Of course those results are futher changed if you take in killer choice popularity where certain killers are way more likely to be chosen than others but on a basic level its pretty much 0.5% or someone with an actual degree in math will come along & explain it much better.

That's basically right though the odds would be way lower, the chances of facing something 1/23 twice is already 0.19% I think, although it wouldn't be out of 23 because not every player has purchased Bubba, but this should actually make it less likely I think, even if lots have purchased him for BBQ because there's a good chance they don't actually use him.

So yea the chances should be incredibly low, but then due to the nature of probability it's not just possible but in a way inevitable that someone will get a run of loads of games against the same killer.

Still OP has been crazily unlucky, I rarely see Bubba at all, suppose rank also comes into play.

My original post disappeared whilst editing.

deckyr · May 16, 2021

@MintberryCrunch said:
https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/comment/2192066#Comment_2192066
That's basically right though the odds would be way lower, the chances of facing something 1/23 twice is already 0.19% I think, although it wouldn't be out of 23 because not every player has purchased Bubba, but this should actually make it less likely I think, even if lots have purchased him for BBQ because there's a good chance they don't actually use him.
So yea the chances should be incredibly low, but then due to the nature of probability it's not just possible but in a way inevitable that someone will get a run of loads of games against the same killer.
Still OP has been crazily unlucky, I rarely see Bubba at all, suppose rank also comes into play.
My original post disappeared whilst editing.

i wouldn't even say the chances are even based on the roster size. different ranks straight up just have different killers. if op is a purple rank, then bubba's way more likely than 1/23.

LiunUK · May 16, 2021

@deckyr said:
https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/comment/2192126#Comment_2192126
i wouldn't even say the chances are even based on the roster size. different ranks straight up just have different killers. if op is a purple rank, then bubba's way more likely than 1/23.

the resent buggy rank reset put me from rank 1 to rank 2 but all my matches have been with rank 4-8 killers with rank 15+ teammates

this is all I see now when I close my eyes