Stupid Question
Had a disagreement with a friend because we’re really bad at math. Anyway, if you attempt to unhook yourself 3 times, would it be a 4% or 12% chance to unhook?
Had a disagreement with a friend because we’re really bad at math. Anyway, if you attempt to unhook yourself 3 times, would it be a 4% or 12% chance to unhook?
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Comments
Neither.
11.6% if I am not mistaken.
In total you have a 12% chance. But a single try is 4%
@RekNakk 100% chance that it will not work
Oops sorry, 4 percent chance that it might actually work in your favor, and a 0.01 percent chance the killer give a **** that you managed to do that
This right here is very true.
I myself will only respect the 4(12)% if I am generally calm. If I am there to kill, well, I hope the unhook was enough. Cause you going back on it.
4% chance each attempt.
4% per attempt, 3 attempts, and it follows a binomial distribution. P(X>=1) is roughly 11.5%.
You can use this online tool to calculate it: https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
Or you can do it by hand following the equation that can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution
That's not how it works, its 4% chance every attempt you do, it doesn't climb up each attempt. [If it did we'd have so many more self hook saves.]
I'm saying the grand total is a 12%. But that 12 is divided by three, giving you 4% each attempt.
That's still not how it works.
Bite me (~~-w-)~~
Just kidding, but I have no idea otherwise.
I explained it in my first comment. Unhooks follow a binomial distribution. I even provided a handy tool to calculate the probability.
@Orion Oh wait, I said 11.6 but didn't use calculator. Is it closer to 11.5%? I thought it was gonna round to 11.6, I guess not.
IIRC it's something like 11.52%, but I'm not sure.
Didn't see it (The last ds user blinded me as an insult to injury), but now I did. I feel stupid. Good to know though.
I checked it, it's around 11.5264%.
I used a calculator and found the same result, thanks
You guys are smart, thanks for settling our little dispute! :)