SBMM, A Theory, A Misconception and 'The Rule Of 3'.
So I've been watching a lot of streams, listening to a lot of discussions and trying to puzzle out this whole SBMM fiasco.
As per my other thread, I'm...mostly a fan. It sometimes does really odd things, but for myself, as an intermediate level player, it's been a godsend.
But then why do a lot of high MMR types really dislike it?
This is going to be a little convoluted, but give it a read. I genuinely think I may be onto something here.
A Theory
Before SBMM, killers mostly had no matchmaking protections. This meant that you'd get matched with a very wide range of opponents, whichever side you played.
For a high MMR person, this meant that the vast majority of players were worse than you. You'd have a lot of wins with only a few decisive losses here and there. The higher MMR, the more likely this would be true.
However, this meant that as a low MMR player, you'd run into a ton of games that were basically impossible.
Now, the system tries to match you with people closer to you.
For a new/intermediate player, this dramatically improves things - at least once you get past 'complete beginner'/lose a ton of matches. You win more, or at least have a lot fewer crushing losses.
For the high MMR player though, it's a bit different. Now, the majority of your games are much sweatier, because you are no longer getting constantly matched against people weaker than you (and you're seeing more hackers, but that's another discussion).
'But...why would this be the case? Surely the system wants you to kill 2 players on average every game? Then why is it always a one-sided stomp?' you ask, person I just made up.
The Big Misconception and The Rule of 3
This only clicked for me recently.
When the devs say 'on average, 2 kills a match' - they don't mean that your average match will have 2 kills.
DbD works under something I'm calling The Rule of 3. The name is mine, but it's an observation that Otz and other high tier players have noticed.
Essentially, if one survivor is dead before 3 gens are completed, the killer will almost always get a 3-4k.
If all survivors are alive when 3 gens are completed, they'll almost always get a 3 or 4 out.
I've been watching my own games and...yeah. This broadly holds true.
What this means is that MMR is trying to position you in a place where, simply, you stand an equal chance of getting a 4k or a 0k. Over time, this should average out to 2 kills per match - but will usually take the form (ideally) of an equal number of 4ks and 0ks.
DbD is a snowball game. It generally feels like a stomp, win or lose. That's not MMR's fault, that's just the nature of the game.
So - basically, this means that for a high MMR player, they are going to see more 'stomps' where they lose, or at least have to play extremely sweaty.
For an intermediate/low MMR, they are going to see less stomps where they lose, and won't have to play as sweaty - in comparison to before.
I...wonder.
TL/DR: A lot of the annoyance that MMR seems to be causing high MMR players as opposed to lower MMR players might come down to simple psychology, the nature of the system before MMR making it much easier for them to win more of their games and a possible misconception about what BHVR have stated regarding the '2k average'.
EDIT: Yes, I completely understand that this is mostly a post from the perspective of Killer. The SBMM system needs to be a bit more nuanced when it comes to survivor, as a binary escape/died measurement is not always indicative of skill. But that's a different discussion.
Comments
I'm probably low MMR as Survivor and I've seen zero improvements personally.
It's the same thing every single game.
DbD is a snowball game. It generally feels like a stomp, win or lose. That's not MMR's fault, that's just the nature of the game.
I don't know about that one, though. Here's the thing, does it feel like a stomp if the survivors do all the gens and get caught at the exit gates? Or if the gens are nearly done but the fourth person goes for a hatch escape? Or if the killer somehow gets 8 hooks but hasn't actually killed anyone (which, tbf, seems much less common in my experience--if there's enough of an advantage to get 8 hooks someone's normally dead).
Like, a lot of 4 escape games seem to fall into a similar pattern: a bunch of gens go fast during the first chase, not camping leads to an easy unhook, the rest of the gens go with maybe one or two more hooks, everyone escapes. Game time: 7 or so minutes max even without super optimised genrush setups. Killer experience: hold W and play Tom and Jerry.
Some 4k games snowball out of control really fast and everyone dies at once, but there's a lot more room for people to... play. More chases, unhooks, healing checks.
4e games seem to tend towards "Not only was it a loss, but it was a loss where nobody did anything for most of it". Which might explain all the teabaggers; they didn't do anything except hold M1 on gens, got to find something fun to do...
Survivor is...tricky. You are going to see a lot more 'churn' because it's not just your MMR, it's the MMR of your teammates, how well you work together, whether one of you is slacking off, being selfish or even sandbagging.
What I'd love is for someone to have noted down maybe 100 matches before SBMM and after SBMM from a solo survivor POV, regarding what happened.
SBMM absolutely does have it's quirks. Especially with how long survivor queues can get at some points of the day (my record is 12 minutes!) you may wind up with all sorts. Similarly, low MMR survivor can also have long queues...but so can high MMR survivor. This means that sometimes you get the absurd games where 2 survivors are insanely good, one is intermediate and one is a complete newbie - up against a pretty decent killer.
I'm...not sure how to fix that aside from getting more people to play killer.
It feels worse or at best, the exact same as the rank system.
A totally mixed bag. I'm pretty sure that if you win X amount of matches in a row, the system actively tries to sabotage you as well.
Okay, going in order here:
It's funny, because this is said about every MMR system in basically every team game I've played :D.
It's not sabotaging you. What's happening is that either you are facing very sweaty, very skilled killers with meta killer/addon/perk choices OR you are getting less skilled teammates to get the team average around that of the killer's.
I'd be really curious as to what the actual numbers say, but the chances of us seeing them are slim to nill.
To me it was different: I play killer a lot more, and I would usually get the common awful teams before SBMM was implemented. Since it was, my teammates got better and my survivor games got easier. Meanwhile, killer games started getting harder, since my MMR as killer is obviously much higher than the one I have as survivor.
On MMR, honestly I don't think it is a well designed system. Just on a core functional level. Basing all of matchmaking on whether you die or escape leads to some... probably unwanted results.
In theory, the Survivor who can get the highest MMR is one who never gets found, leaves gens early, plays super safe at every window/pallet and does gens as often as possible. Definitely never go for any end game risky saves, nope, open that door and yeet yourself out the Trial.
In theory, the Killer who can get the highest MMR is the one who tunnels, camps, and slugs as much as possible and does anything and everything possible to confirm those kills. Possibly with a Mori to bypass DS on death hook Survivors.
Neither of those play styles are the most fun ones either side can engage in. If MMR was visible, there is a very good chance that it would literally ruin the game. With it invisible, it still hurts it, but people can't see their invisible number going up and down so they don't fall into that particular psychological trap.
Also, there's a distinct issue with trying to balance for the 2k. That being... it is really easy for any Killer to confirm a 1k. All gens are done? Down and hook somebody and camp as hard as you possibly can. The only way the Survivors are getting that particular person out is with very good teamwork and probably a few second chance perks. If its Bubba... don't even bother. On the flip side, how easy is it for Survivors to confirm a 1e? Near impossible. The killer can always slug for the 4k, hatch has been nerfed and hatch counts as a tie anyway. To make matters even worse, Bubba exists and a Bubba with NOED who's willing to camp it out basically gets a 2k every game. If the Devs do ever manage to make it so all Killers have a 50% kill rate the above facts will mean that playing killer will royally suck unless they somehow make camping not possible which... I don't think they can.
I've seen it happen because people got greedy on unhooking, or because they underestimated Plague, or even just plain bad luck. But, if you're saying that "feels like a stomp to them" then we're not using the phrase in any way that makes sense. Stomp, to me, would imply a completely one-sided game from start to finish--the sort of thing where no gens get done, regression effects keep sabotaging the same generator as survivors die around it, etc. Not just "I lost big time on score".
But the way you're describing it, a single survivor dying is a stomp to them just by dint of them losing. It doesn't matter how much was achieved, how many BP they get, or how well they did, it's just loss=stomp. That's a silly description.
As I said, 8 hooks no deaths is rare, but it happens. But that's also one of the few times you'd get a survivor win that didn't feel really lopsided.
I'm not sure many survivors feel that way in 4k situations. The amount of DCs I see is somewhat testament to this.
Mmmm, people who DC like that are kind of pathetic. You expect me to stick around even though I'm losing, stop denying hooks and any effects they might have. If you're in the game to enjoy the game, then stop ragequitting because you happen to lose after a bunch of game time.
But we seem to be disagreeing on the idea of a stomp. I'd say not every 4k or even 4e has to be one, despite the result, everyone can still have some back and forth during it--sometimes a team is doing really well but overreaches on the altruism and gets a bunch of kills; sometimes the killer gets greedy and a bunch of people get out when it should've been a few deaths; sometimes it just becomes a long game as the sides aren't super lopsided.
Here I'll absolutely agree.
The system needs to be more nuanced on the survivor end of things.
I'll often go out of my way to let the really good player on the time escape, for this exact reason - and I'll always kill a selfish hider or sandbagger.
I'm a...little tired of seeing 'camping, slugging and tunneling' blamed for all skilled killers. The only one of these things that is a problem is facecamping - which BHVR themselves have said they are going to introduce a mechanic to fix. Proxy camping, tactical slugging and making sure one survivor dies ASAP is sort of how this game is meant to be played.
Regarding your final point...I'm not sure you understood me.
MMR isn't trying to get you an average of 2k a game. It's trying to get you an average of 2k per game across a wide variety of games that will mostly be either 0-1k or 3-4k.
Ah.
Yes, we are using that term differently. To me a 'stomp' is a game where one side won overwhelmingly, which feels like most DbD games by it's nature.
And yes - to a lot of survivors, them even getting downed is unfun. I certainly see enough DCs to prove this :)
Last point: I understood you just fine. I don't think you understood me. I am aware that DBD is very snowbally so it will attempt to be balanced so that there's even odds of the snowball going either direction. The problem is that what happens when the Survivor snowballs and what happens when the Killer snowballs is NOT even. Not even close.
Lets say the match snowballs in the Survivors' favor. All gens are done, all 4 Survivors are alive. What happens? Well, if the Killer either has or gets a hook before doors are open, he's probably going to face camp the survivor he caught. Why? Well... what else is he going to do? Odds are that face camp will be successful and that person dies... or maybe the Survivors make a trade and the trade dies. Unless the Survivors seriously out skill or out perk the Killer, he's keeping someone.
Lets say the match snowballs in the Killer's favor. 3+ gens left, 2 Survivors left, one down, one injured. What happens? Well, if the Killer wants, he can leave the downed Survivor on the floor and find and down the injured one and confirm his 4k without the Hatch ever entering the equation.
Those two things are wildly different. We aren't alternating between a 0k and a 4k, we're alternating between a 1k and a 4k. THAT is why all Killers except Nurse have a +50% kill rate and the average kill rate is ~56% over the entire playerbase the last time we got stats. It isn't because killers are stronger... they just get less screwed when they get screwed.
Because killers can almost always secure at least 1k, but survivors can't really secure at least a 1e... To get things "balanced" to 50% kill rate, the snowball will have to go to the Survivors more often... which will make playing Killer suck.
Either that or BHVR will need to buff the hatch or nerf camping.
Either that or BHVR will need to buff the hatch or nerf camping.
Buffing the hatch again would also make playing killer suck, because it's a return to "survivors don't even need to finish their objective to get out".
There would be many ways to buff the Hatch without returning it to exactly how it worked. Also even if they did fully revert the hatch, if they properly nerfed keys like they should have... it wouldn't be as much of an issue.
I can explain a bit why higher MMR types (like I assume myself to be, obviously can't know for certain) tend to dislike MMR. It also ties into your theory.
Your theory jives with what I tend to experience in terms of survivors matchmaking and what we know about DbD balance. Four good survivors (assuming no perk/item restrictions), will win in a blowout most of the time. But one or two bad survivors will lead to a 4k. When MMR first released, I escaped 20 something games in a row. I was being matched with people I knew had my experience level. Games weren't close. And then slowly I started to get matched with default clothing brand new players. This is in spite of not actually dying in a game. I'm suddenly being placed in matches I can't possibly escape outside of a miracle. And after I die a few times in these lobbies, I go back to 1000+ hr teammates.
This is a long way of saying, it isn't exactly enjoyable. The difficulty increase isn't organic on the survivor side. The killers aren't better in these games. I legit had a teammates with 1.4, 50, and 22 hrs the other day. I have 3600. It doesn't matter how good I am relative to the killer if my teammates just bought the game. But at least my escape rate is where it needs to be.
And on the killer side, I'm still not really losing games. Aside from the sweat level adjustment, public match survivors didn't suddenly become gods. The odd 2k here and there but nothing has really changed. I'm just seeing hackers on a near nightly basis when I play. That's been the biggest change along with the sweat level.
Having random games, you could get away with no slow down builds and just play most games for fun and get sweaty only when needed.
It's just bad when you have to be sweaty every game.
Killers just want to play for fun too.
Playing killers got way more stressful for me since SBMM, because I know that even just one mistake can cost me a game.
Only way to enjoy the game for me was just lose on purpose. With that mind set, I didn't care if they escaped, because I would let them leave anyway.
But I have actually stopped playing for some time. SBMM didn't help, but for me it was undeserved nerfs and CoH.
Sure.
But the reason you could do this was that you were being matched up against people a lot less experienced/skilled than you and could still win pretty handily.
This was a lot less fun for them.
I totally hear you regarding CoH and the silly nerfs to Slinger, Wraith and Cenobite which...I honestly can't think of anyone credible who doesn't think they were bogus.
I'm 95% sure that the MMR system will toss you into 10 games where you get 4K'd and 10 where you 4 man escape because that's a 50% Kill Rate and is perfectly balanced to the devs.
I'm not sure if 'perfectly balanced' and 'Dead by Daylight' should even be used in the same sentence :).
However...yeah. That is how MMR works. Otherwise someone is getting a lot of extra 4ks at the expense of someone else getting a lot of extra crushing defeats.
As someone who played more survivor than killer, I can say their is no improvement on my killer end. I consistently get matched against a team equivalent of seal team 6 that makes me feel as if I lost before the match even started. As survivor the system doesn't work because if the matches are supposed to be fair why are my idiot teammates getting matched with the sweatiest killers like I am when they obviously weren't ready for that level of play?
One small thing to add here.
If a killer is slugging for a 4K, there was never any chance of an escape, because the hatch doesn't count as an escape, it's neutral.
So I wouldn't say the killer is securing a 4K, they already had it. If it's got to that point, it's already snowballed to a 4K scenario.
A true 3K would be 2 survivors left when the exit gates are powered, killer kills one before they pass the threshold, which would sound like it should be a 2K match.
So really, killer can almost always secure 1K more than the outcone of a game would suggest they should get.
So we could even go as far as to adjust all scores down by 1K. A 1K is actually a 0K, a 4K is actually a 3 K, etc.
If you're out of your depth, then either there are just too many good people and not enough low MMR people on at that time (morning games are always a grudge match for me) or you'll eventually hit the sweet spot.
MMR has a weird 'calibration' game every so often where it throws me up against some very strong people.
How many hours have you played, if you don't mind me asking?
Sure. But that's not always the case.
I have plenty games where I'll try to camp the last guy out (when I've secured zero kills) and I get outplayed, they had Unbreakable etc. I don't think the killer can always secure a 1k.
But I do see your point.
That's exactly what it feels like matchmaking is trying to accomplish. 4 high level survivors aren't going to lose 50% of their games because there aren't enough killers out there at that level, so the devs made a workaround by throwing those survivors into virtually unwinnable games to achieve their spreadsheet goals. Or maybe I just have a tinfoil hat.
"This was a lot less fun for them."
I don't think so, those game was probably more fun than current games.
Thing is before, I had option to start friendly and I could get serious during game if needed, so when I saw they are not that good, I often let them recover, so that game doesn't end on 4-5 gens -> that's not fun. I almost always gave a hatch and sometimes multiple survivors, when it was really fun game.
Have you ever seen survivors do it and not just escape when killer has 3 hooks total? I myself never done it, because this is way harder to do as a survivor than a killer. I did give him free kill tho, but that doesn't really help imo.
That is just not an option anymore. It's kinda in hands of survivors now, where problem is: it's kinda impossible to let killer recover as a survivor, only way to do it is always go for totems, so game is longer....
I find my games have always worked the opposite. I have to start serious and then ease up - because I'm not sure if I'm up against a potentially hard game. Especially on specific maps.
The problem with your scenario is that you may be nice, but I'm willing to wager that most killer players aren't that charitable. Hence the endless pre-MMR 'streak' videos, which were mostly just complete stomps.
This game has always been somewhat in the hands of survivors, assuming equal-ish skill levels in the match. The killer has always played a reactive game, as the survivors win by default. And I've...made my peace with that.
I still think that more games having similar skill levels is more healthy, which is what MMR at least aims to accomplish.
Somewhere around 3,000 to 3,500 total. About 1/6th of that time is on my killers
Interesting.
A few thoughts: