A precision about the bear traps escape update ?
Patch notes says:
The Trapper:
- Escaping from a Bear Trap now has a 1/6 (16.6%) chance of succeeding on each attempt, but is capped at a maximum of 6 attempts
- Addons that reduce the chance of escape increase the maximum number of attempts as well as reducing the chance per attempt
So if I understand this correctly, it mean that to escape a bear trap you have to roll a 6 on a 6 sided dice, but the sixth attempt always work. Correct ? Making it unlikely to be able to escape in less than 6 trys.
Or, do each trap have a randomly set number of escape attempts ? Which would make it like drawing 6 shuffled cards in order. Each time you draw a blank card your odds of drawing the "escape" card next increase.
If its like rolling a dice, then the patch notes are correct and your escape odds are 16.6/16.6/16.6/16.6/16.6/100%
But if its like the cards, then your odds are 16.6/33.3/50/66.6/83.3/100% and the patch notes are incorrect.
So wich is it ? Its not like I don't trust the patch notes, but there have been mistakes and weird omissions before and I'd like to know for sure how my power work when I play the Trapper. This also affect the value of add-ons that reduce escape chances.
You know that eventually someone is going to complain about the "odds not feeling right", so please can someone tell us how exactly the new bear trap escape work ? Are the patch notes correct or is this misinformation ?
Edit: worded the card exemple a bit better.
Comments
From what I understood it was more like a deck of 6 cards.
One of the card is the get escape. You draw one card when you attempt to escape and that card is then discarded, thus reducing the number of card left in the deck.
But then again, I could be wrong.
1/6 chance of escaping each attempt means it's rolling a 6 sided die each time. I hope they aren't messing up the language because by wording it as 1/6 each attempt, these must be independent events, so the probability you make it to the 6th attempt = the probability your first 5 are failures = (5/6)^5 = 40%. The 6th attempt has 100% success rate without add-ons.
This is a geometric probability distribution that stops at 6 attempts.
I'm pretty sure it's not a 1/6 on each attempt.
They specifically made the change with the goal of making instand escape harder, while making each subsequent attempt easier, a pure dice roll wouldnt accomplish that while a card draw would.
I mean, the patch notes specifically say "1/6 (16.6%) chance of succeeding on each attempt"
Patch notes have been wrong or incomplete before. This is why I'm asking. I'll be happy if the patch notes are 100% correct. I just want some confirmation, because the chances of escape are significantly different if the mechanic does not actually work as advertised.
I believe the chances increase the more attempts you do.
Indeed.
You'll need to check one of the dev stream, they specifically talked about the change and what was the goal (that's where I got the fact that they wanted to make it harder at first but easier with each new attempt).