SteenGooier
SteenGooier
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@Roobnus said:
https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/comment/1525432#Comment_1525432
Bro you calculated the probability for this to happen for the ENTIRE playerbase.
The math is simple, there is a 0.44% chance to get the same realm 3 times in a row - that means it should only ever happen once in 227 matches. So that's like roughly once per month assuming you play 2-3 hours a day on average.
BTW: Do you have a source where they confirm that the realms are randomed and then the maps for that specific realm? Because that would cause insane imbalances between 1 map realms and the old 5 map realms.
I know, I was just trying to put the chance into some perspective.
I can't find a source from the devs about the map rotation, but I do remember something from like back in 2016 or 2017, possibly a devstream. I would assume it's more logical to first pick the Realm and then the Map, since Maps from the same Realm can otherwise quickly start feeling 'kind of the same'. But I can't find any source or statistics with a high sample rate, so I'm not entirely sure.
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@Roobnus said:
https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/comment/1525068#Comment_1525068
Hey genius, ever heard of probability calculations?
DbD has 15 realms and 35 different maps. How high are the chances to get 3x The Game and 3x Ormond in a row within 6 matches?
I let you do the math.
I know this is an old thread, but I figured I would actually do 'the math' to clarify that this is still very plausible with random map picking:
The map RNG first picks the Realm a match will take place on, and if that Realm has multiple Maps, it will choose a Map from the picked Realm. The Game and Mount Ormond Resort are both Maps that belong in a Realm with only one map, so to simplify I'm gonna translate your question to "What is the chance to get the same Realm 3 times in a row, and then a different Realm 3 times in a row, in the span of 6 matches". In the calculations I will assume that no one will use Realm offerings.
(15/15) * (1/15) * (1/15) * (14/15) * (1/15) * (1/15) * 100 = ~0.00184%
In my simplified question it doesn't matter which Realm your first game is on (15/15), to then get the same realm 2 more times in a row has a chance of (1/15) * (1/15) * 100 = ~0.4444%. To then land on a different Realm has a chance of (14/15), and to then land on that same different Realm 2 more times also has about a 0.4444% chance. Multiply it all together and you get about 0.00184%.
Now that might seem as a very low chance, but considering DbD had ~40000 average players in June and July, and on average you can play about 3 matches in an hour (maybe 2 if the matchmaking is really, really bad). That means that every hour, 40000 / 5 * 3 = 24000 matches are played, of which each match has 5 players. 0.00184% out of 24000 is ~0.44 matches / hour. Multiplied by 5 again means that on average about 2.2 people each hour will get the same Realm 3 times in a row, and then a different Realm also 3 times in a row straight after.
And just for fun: Specifically getting 3x The Game, and then 3x Ormond will happen about (1/15)^6 * 40000 * 3 * 24 = ~0.253 times a day.
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10Mbps isn't that much, but it should definitely be enough to play DbD lag-free.
A stable speed is especially important when you're playing killer, because then you'll be hosting the match.My internet speed is 40Mbps down/4Mbps up, but I never have any lag issues in DbD.
Is your PS4 connected to your router via Wifi or an ethernet cable?
If it is connected via Wifi, consider using an ethernet cable instead. If your PS4 isn't close to your router, consider buying a "powerline adapter", so you can still have a wired connection between PS and router.