Is holding W and playing super safe still viable?
Warning, lots of math ahead for a TLDR see the bottom of the post.
So, before the last big update, one of the common ways for good survivors to play, was to just hold w to gain as much distance as possible against the killer, and then just drop every pallet almost immediately without really doing much in the way of looping. Never taking a risk and just predropping everything and holding w. So a while back i did some math that showed how viable holding w would be. Here is how that math worked:
Let's pretend that killer power doesn't exist and that pallets and windows and looping do not exist. We do this to eliminate as many variables as possible to see if holding W is still viable. If the killer has a power, then the survivor's "power" is pallets, windows, and loops. So we take both of those away to see how powerful holding w is.
Keep in mind this section is the older numbers from before:
Some data:
Survivor movement speed: 4.0 m/s
Survivor post hit movement speed duration: 2 seconds
Survivor post hit movement speed: 6.0 m/s
Killer movement speed: 4.6 m/s
Killer movement speed while carrying survivor: 3.68 m/s
Killer Terror Radius: 32 meters
Killer hit cooldown: 3 seconds
Killer pick up speed: 3 seconds
Killer hook speed: 1.5 seconds
Generator repair speeds: 80 seconds
Average distance to hook: 12 meters
Average human response time: 273 ms (https://humanbenchmark.com/tests/reactiontime)
Average map size: 9850 square meters (~99.25x99.25 meters for a square)
So, let's assume killers and survivors all spawn at opposite ends of the map. The survivors spend the first 20 seconds looking for a generator and the killer spends the first 20 seconds running to the opposite end of the map. With a killer having a 32 meter terror radius, and taking into account movement speeds and human reaction time. if we take the human reaction time and triple it to account for figuring out the direction the killer is coming from and making sure you can run the opposite direction, the survivor will spot the killer in 819 ms. To make math simpler let's round it up to 1 second. during this time the killer gets 4.6 meters closer. So now the killer is 27.4 meters away. During this time the survivor runs in the exact opposite direction of the killer.
Remember, no powers, no pallets, no windows, just a straight line. In order for the killer to catch up to the 5 meters (lunge is 6 meters but taking into account human reactions and lag and spinning and such, we say 5) required for lunge distance the killer needs to move 22.4 meters to close the gap. The difference in movement speed between them is .6, this means the killer closes the 22.4 meter gap in 37.333 seconds. The killer then lands a hit.
The survivor then runs in a straight line and the killer is unable to move much for 3 seconds. During 2 of those seconds the survivor is moving at 6 m/s and for 4 m/s for 1 second. This means the survivor gets 18 meters way. The killer now has to close a gap of 13 meters for a lunge. It takes the killer 21.66666 seconds to catch up to the survivor and land another hit.
The killer now picks the survivor up taking 6 seconds (3 seconds for picking up, and 3 seconds for attack cooldown), and they walk to the nearest hook about 12 meters away. This takes 3.25 seconds, the hooking action takes 1.5 seconds.
The time to find this survivor, hit them once, catch up, hit them again, pick them up walk to a hook and hook them took: 37.3333 + 21.66666 + 6 + 3.25 + 1.5 = 69.75 seconds. Even if the killer knew exactly where the next survivor was and ran to them immediately, they would lose 3 generators. During this time this action rinse and repeats, but instead of having 3 survivors on generators, you will only ever have 1, (1 will be being chased, 1 is on hook, 1 going for the save and 1 on gens). This means that the killer will on average get 3 hooks before the generators are done. Even when factoring in bloodlust, you only gain .2 m/s movement speed which results in you saving 1, maybe 2 seconds on the 1st hit.
This factors out killer power, pallets, looping. All it is, is running in a single straight line.
Now, let's do this same math, but with the new numbers:
With the new numbers:
Some data:
Survivor movement speed: 4.0 m/s
Survivor post hit movement speed duration: 1.8 seconds
Survivor post hit movement speed: 6.0 m/s
Killer movement speed: 4.6 m/s
Killer movement speed while carrying survivor: 3.68 m/s
Killer Terror Radius: 32 meters
Killer hit cooldown: 2.7 seconds
Killer pick up speed: 3 seconds
Killer hook speed: 1.5 seconds
Generator repair speeds: 90 seconds
Average distance to hook: 12 meters
Average human response time: 273 ms (https://humanbenchmark.com/tests/reactiontime)
Average map size: 9850 square meters (~99.25x99.25 meters for a square)
So, let's assume killers and survivors all spawn at opposite ends of the map. The survivors spend the first 20 seconds looking for a generator and the killer spends the first 20 seconds running to the opposite end of the map. With a killer having a 32 meter terror radius, and taking into account movement speeds and human reaction time. if we take the human reaction time and triple it to account for figuring out the direction the killer is coming from and making sure you can run the opposite direction, the survivor will spot the killer in 819 ms. To make math simpler let's round it up to 1 second. during this time the killer gets 4.6 meters closer. So now the killer is 27.4 meters away. During this time the survivor runs in the exact opposite direction of the killer.
Remember, no powers, no pallets, no windows, just a straight line. In order for the killer to catch up to the 5 meters (lunge is 6 meters but taking into account human reactions and lag and spinning and such, we say 5) required for lunge distance the killer needs to move 22.4 meters to close the gap. The difference in movement speed between them is .6, this means the killer closes the 22.4 meter gap in 37.333 seconds. The killer then lands a hit.
The survivor then runs in a straight line and the killer is unable to move much for 2.7 seconds. During 1.8 of those seconds the survivor is moving at 6 m/s and for 4 m/s for .9 seconds. This means the survivor gets 14.4 meters way. The killer now has to close a gap of 9 meters for a lunge. It takes the killer 15 seconds to catch up to the survivor and land another hit.
The killer now picks the survivor up taking 5.7 seconds (3 seconds for picking up, and 2.7 seconds for attack cooldown), and they walk to the nearest hook about 12 meters away. This takes 3.25 seconds, the hooking action takes 1.5 seconds.
The time to find this survivor, hit them once, catch up, hit them again, pick them up walk to a hook and hook them took: 37.3333 + 15 + 5.7 + 3.25 + 1.5 = 62.7 seconds. This would mean the killer would likely lose 2 gens in the first chase. (just barely reaching the 3rd survivor before it finishes).
Notes:
I know people will say "but powers exist", yes, yes they do, but i eliminated as many variables as possible, we are just talking about running in straight lines right now. I know people will say, "but don't focus that survivor down, change targets and go back to patrolling gens". This is also true, but if the killer does this, the survivor being chased will start to heal (medkit/healing meta) and only takes 16 seconds to do so, while it takes the killer 37 seconds to land the first hit. This means that that survivor can be back on a gen by the time the killer lands their next hit.
TLDR:
Depending on the killer, holding shift + w and just predropping every pallet is likely still the best way to play unless you are going against a killer that specifically counters that such as nurse, spirit, or blight.
Comments
Too long, didn't read
Yes u can press w with some killers
Which leads to boring gameplay on both sides. The fun of the game is in the chase, the looping and the mindgames.
You can and should be maximizing distance to the correct areas. It's still viable and the smartest way to play, just not as powerful in a straight line. Not necessarily an objective fact that optimal survivor play is boring. Looping is just one component of the entire survivor skillset.
Your math does not calculate any variables. Almost no-one start to run away from killer until they see him meaning you usually get first hit very quickly and if they run straight and don't loop you down them in 10s roughly. Some of my first chases even last under 10s if the survivor get bit stuck on object front of him.
Holding W is not about running in a straight line, it's about chaining tiles and playing them in a safe way, aka pre-dropping if it's a loop the killer is able to mindgame. From my experience even with the nerfed speed boost + 8 stacks of STBFL survivors most of the time can still chain tiles rather well on the majority of the maps. MacMillians now are especially nasty with the new tiles, and there's still Badham, Eyrie of Crows, Garden of Joy, Cowshed...
Honestly I'd take reverting all of the killer buffs and survivor nerfs for a flat out 25% size reduction on most maps. Map design is just crazy bad in this game.
This is an example of high level play. Watch any tournament where the killer did not play nurse or spirit and you will see that the meta is to maximize distance as soon as possible and play extremely safe and just drop pallets.
Correct. This gameplay is boring for both sides. It literally is, maximize distance by running in the opposite direction. Run to a pallet, and drop the pallet before any mindgame can even take place forcing the killer to break it in order to continue on. When survivors actually do generators, the amount of time it takes to catch up to a survivor after breaking a pallet is insane even with the buffs that you lose so much momentum. The game basically doesn't become tolerable until a survivor is on a hook, in which case now the game is (1 survivor on hook, 1 saving, 1 in chase, and 1 on gen)
This is leading to the response of the killer meta being, camping and tunneling. It is better to just camp someone out and bank on the survivors getting overly altruistic because you are playing in a scummy way and taking advantage of that. if they don't get altruistic at least you can usually secure 2 kills.
Screencap this post, the killer meta will soon be playing a killer that can injure quickly like legion or plague with thana, injure the whole team, down someone, and camp.
I didn't read the whole post but your TLDR at the end sounds correct. Mostly holding W and/or chaining two or three tiles together in a big loop and dropping pallets relatively early is still I think the best strategy from my perspective as killer. I'm sure looping is more exciting for the survivors who can do it really well but looping does carry more risk because if you mess up you have no distance from the killer and will almost definitely get hit. The risk and consistency of holding forward and dropping early shouldn't be underestimated.
yeah, you know what is funny? people complain about it as survivor. that is the hilarious part. Killer would be like 100% pallet break to counter this, 10% pallet break is like a drop in the water. You only lose like 1 meter of distance compare to before. The killer would need to be breaking pallets at leatherface levels of speed to counter this.
in term of hold-w pre-chase. its a lot weaker now because they nerfed spine chill, a perk that exaggerates this gameplay especially for solo although dev don't know why spine chill is used so there is that. It reminds of that old Objection of Obsession comment, "Not a terribly effective perk".
You can technically counter holding before the chase through undetectable but not many killers have access to undetectable and those that do are often among weakest in the chase.
in term of health-states, the old amount of time was 24 seconds. now its 20 seconds. 20 seconds is a lot of time to get to another pallet. so chaining pallets is barely any different but at least now, the killer is better at capitalizing on deadzones for pallets. Only killer with an instant gap-close in the chase or base-kit instant down can do anything against health-states.
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there is only one killer in the game that has access to both an instant down and undetectable and there is no killer that has access to instant downs, undetectable and has strong chase power. so holding-w will always be effective strategy.
The new spine chill is amazing for telling you immediately if you are running away from the killer or accidentally towards them. Im a baby survivor but that thing just carries me.
Not for me.
When I play Killer the fun is making you eat dirt. I don't want to "loop'. It looks and feels silly and stupid.
When I play Survivor, I evade, immerse, and duck the Killer. I don't want to "loop". It looks and feels silly and stupid.
Didn't even have to read the math. Yes, it's still viable because the pallet breaking speed and less sprint burst barely changed anything. Just play safe like before and you'll be fine.
Imo, yes absolutely. If you play super safe, pre drop pallets, hold w against alot of the killers (apart from nurse or blight who can catch up instantly). Then yes, I believe holding w is still a strategy
In swf I can see it be most effective. In most soloque matches killer will be victorious because alot of times the other survivors will run to the dead zones created by this strat and killer will always proxy and push back to there as he or she should.
On a side note I am ok with a careless survivor being dead if they are expediting the death of the rest of the team. You sort of have to be, because the only smart play with no pallets on map is to rush gens and go next.
New spine chill is just stupid they made it to counter steath killers when they were the ones suffering from it the most.