Fog Carnival Event stats, what do they mean for the Killer or Survivor Sided debate.
I have been watching the fog carnival event stats for global progress, and I have noticed two main issues.
- The Base numbers to reach are geared in a way that almost insinuates the killers are supposed to win, I think this points to the developers being aware that short of the most cream of the crop skilled players most survivor games are going to lean toward multiple killer kills.
- the actual numbers even seem to be going up in a way that suggest most games are ending in 4ks for the killer.
Now this information can have many reasons the first the numbers are slightly skewed in survivor favor already, though that has changed over the last 24 hours from almost dead stated 12 hooks to 8 unhooks ratio. At this time its 19.8m unhooks to 28.5m hooks, now this also is skewed by maybe a survivor staged and took a hook away, or maybe a killer mori or mini mori, or lets say its pyramid head (not sure if his cage would count in the event), these things can easily be skewing the ratios lower for the killer. But this information insinuates that in a great deal of the games are either ending in 4k or at least 3k. I think that for once Behavior now has a solid set of numbers showing them this game does slant to the killer side, and hopefully it will push them to help this game for those of us who are not the best players ever.
Comments
The Henry just came out & the average person probably has no idea what to do against him.
This is an excuse made every time a new killer comes out, this is partly true but if the game was survivor sided it wouldn't matter. The stats basically tell us that most games end in a 4k thats not a balanced game.
Most games don't end in 4ks, BHVR has shown the kill ratios before, the percentages are in the fifties & sixties, meaning most games are two & three kills.
Also yes, a new killer coming out is going to skew any stats in that killers favor.
It's not an excuse, it's common sense.
At a minimum, 51% of all matches ended in a 3k or 4k between Sept 1, 2024 and Aug 31, 2025. The last stats we got included a section stating that all five gens got completed in 49% of all trials. No other outcome is possible if all gens didn't get completed.
I don't actually consider this a good statistic to do anything with though as there is zero nuance to that number but it does show that killers overall win more than they lose. Would love if they gave us real win rates stats for every killer and broken out in other ways but I doubt we will ever get those.
Okay since you didnt look at the math I posted obviously, if you break down the unhook and hook max possible form the overall stats this is the ratio of minimum games played to reach those numbers
Survivors would need 2,475,000 games averaged to reach the number of unhooks doing the max each game, also remember this number can be reached without the killer winning so.
Killers would need 2,375,000 games to reach this amount doing max kills, thats only a 100k difference in games played.
This also can be changed by the abandon system too. Then we also have to think about mori system which shaves off some hooks, also Hatch escapes, I guess if your version of winning is 1 survivor escaped then yes survivors win alot but that seems a bit silly. We also dont know if a killer disconnects do they count that as a killer lost in their killer information? Im starting to think that with how the event numbers are showing that we are not getting the full story from BHVR.
I agree with most of what you said but remember hatches can be an escape with 0 gens done, its hard to tell what's going on though with just these numbers though.
I did say 3k or 4k and that was specifically because of hatch/door showdown.