How Long Until Luck Offerings Are Retired?
Luck builds have never been good. They've always cost a lot to up the odds and even at their best they never guaranteed self-unhooking. Group luck offerings still show on the offering screen.
Luck only affects chances to self-unhook and does not affect chests.
Slippery Meat was the strongest part of Luck builds. It gave 3 additional attempts and +4% chance to unhook.
- With Slippery Meat, Up the Ante (1 instance, assuming it doesn't stack with itself) & 4 Jars of Salty Lips a survivor would have a 29% chance to unhook themselves of a single attempt and with 6 attempts that made an 87.1% total chance to self-unhook. Not terrible but definitely still a gamble.
- Without Slippery Meat the odds become dire. Up the Ante & 4 Jars of Salty Lips the single attempt chance is 25% and with 3 attempts that results in a 57.8% total chance to unhook. A terrible gamble.
- A single player with Up the Ante & a Jar of Salty Lips or Ivory Chalk Pouch has single attempt odds of 16% and total odds of 40.7%.
- A single player with just a Jar of Salty Lips or Ivory Chalk Pouch has single attempt odds of 7% and total odds of 19.6%.
- Of course using lesser Luck offerings these odds get worse.
These are the most optimistic numbers if I have them right. Please let me know if I've erred.
So, reworking Slippery Meat is a crippling blow to Luck builds, clearly it's now an awful gamble to bring and use Luck offerings. Why would anyone with good intentions use luck offerings now?
So I think Up the Ante will be reworked and Luck offerings will be retired by the 11th anniversary at the absolute latest. Preferably sooner. In my honest opinion, they should have did away with Luck altogether with 10.2.0.
What do you think? Would you miss them or bid them good riddance?
Comments
Probably never, cause they already reworked it in their favor.
Luck Stacking was killed with Diminishing Returns.
Your math does not account for diminishing returns, but yes that setup was what I had the longest win streak w my SWF with All Kill Comeback chapter Fast Track.
We would run: Up the Ante, Slippery Meat, Fast Track and UB/WGLF whatever 4th perk we wanted to bring w 4x Salty Jars and 4 commodious toolboxes w BNP and Socket Swivels.
Nobody would go for unhooks, since all of us could unhook ourselves, just slam gens 24/7, our shortest match took 3 minutes and 20 seconds against an Unknown in Nostromo Wreckage.
It was disgusting.
With the slippery meat rework, they should either change luck or fully retire it, since naked Up the Ante + Jar offering alone does not merit much.
I kinda hope it is removed, it has slowly been going out for awhile now.
It really should have been reworked to effect item rarity from chests, maybe skillcheck frequency.
Now people just use it to try and go next on hook.
Diminishing returns pretty much killed luck stacking altogether, so I think it's only a matter of time at this point. Slippery Meat being reworked kinda leaves Up the Ante in an awkward spot since they were only really worth using together (even with diminishing returns, the extra escape attempts offered by Slippery Meat was still enough reason to combine them imo)
I think luck will probably end up being retired sooner rather than later, maybe by the end of the year if I were to guess. It just doesn't have a place in the game anymore and you can't rework it into anything without it being an immensely frustrating thing.
I'm hoping it gets retired. As it was before it was incredibly unhealthy because in a squad you could almost guarantee a self unhook, requiring zero downtime for unhooking, and it actively punished the killers for hooking.
Now that Slippery Meat is changing to a much healthier design (that is also more useful to new players as a common perk) it pretty much has no use. Some people might still bring Luck offerings just in case they need a bit higher chance to kobe, but the majority of people that bring them only do so to ragequit and go next while dodging the DC penalty.
I think at this point they're just unhealthy and should be removed, and Up the Ante needs a reworked effect since it's basically useless now.
Full luck builds were fun, but fun is not really allowed in this game anymore. Diminishing returns brought down the odds to a maximum of around 16% which is of course basically nothing.