Interpretations of victory and their probabilities

ColgateAdvancedWhite

Hi,

Having read quite a few forum topics, I realised that many players have different interpretations of what is considered a "win" for them in a match. Very often this difference is what influences players' opinions, especially on issues regarding Killer vs Survivor balance. Below are some of the common interpretations and their probabilities.

Case 1:
Killer considers 4 kills as victory condition. Anything less is a defeat and the game should be balanced around getting 4 kills in 50% of the matches. This means individually a survivor has a 15.91% probability of escaping on average, and 84.09% probability of dying.

Case 2:
Killer considers at least 1 kill as victory condition. This means 1 kill, 2 kills, 3 kills and 4 kills are considered victories. Only 0 kills is considered as a defeat. This means individually a survivor has a 84.09% probability of escaping on average, and 15.91% probability of dying.

Case 3:
Survivor considers individual escape as victory. This means he does not care if other players live or die - only that he averages a 50% escape rate. This means individually a survivor has a 50% probability of escaping on average, and 50% probability of dying.

Case 4 (Notice this is the same as Case 2):
Survivor considers 4 escapes as victory. Any deaths will qualify the match result as defeat. This means individually a survivor has a 84.09% probability of escaping on average, and 15.91% probability of dying. Notice that this is the same as Case 2

ModernFable

This completely skips over the Emblem system, which at least for me is what I consider.

PiP is a win, Safety is a tie, and DePiP is a loss.

Master

@ModernFable said:
This completely skips over the Emblem system, which at least for me is what I consider.

PiP is a win, Safety is a tie, and DePiP is a loss.

The emblem system is a joke

RepliCant

I find it interesting that using the information given from you, we can see Case 3 is the most "balanced".

If we take the description, meaning each Survivors only cares for their death, it also kind of proves the point of the core environment the game was based on originally. Being a lone wolf.

ModernFable

Master said:

@ModernFable said:
This completely skips over the Emblem system, which at least for me is what I consider.

PiP is a win, Safety is a tie, and DePiP is a loss.

The emblem system is a joke

I agree, I’ve made multiple posts about the fact that it is. However, it’s better than a strict kill or escape victory mentality.

Otherwise any player that can rev up theirs chainsaw can get a kill or two a game by default. Or those who Urban Evade around the map until Hatch opens.

The system sucks, don’t get me wrong, but viewing a couple kills or an escape as a victory is not a great measurement of skill either.

DarkWo1f997

If I pip, I won, It’s nice being able to play the rest of the match without stress knowing that I’ve already pipped. Im in the minority though if this chart is to be believed. 

HawkAyeTheNoo

If i pip but the killer kills me, sorry but ive lost. Im dead, ive lost. D E A D. 

SophisticatedOtter

As a survivor I consider 3 or more of us escaping a team victory. Me escaping and pipping a personal victory. I give the tie to the killer so 2 or more of us get killed, it’s a loss. 

Rex_Huin

As soon as I saw the thread title I knew the first post was going to be deep...
And with pie charts as well!
A+ for effort will read it later.

thesuicidefox

@ModernFable said:
This completely skips over the Emblem system, which at least for me is what I consider.

PiP is a win, Safety is a tie, and DePiP is a loss.

Yes this exactly. Pips are how the game defines a win. Everything else is irrelevant.

If you argue that 4k/escapes are a win then literally ANYTHING can be a win if you want it to be.