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Shrine of Secrets and Statistics

mimzy630 mimzy630
in General Discussions

This is a repost. The original was taken down twice, I imagine to censor it. I can't condone it. I have no ill will against BHVR as a company, and I even say that.
EDIT: Sometime last night, the original two posts we're restored. Thanks for Orion for pointing it out.
Here's all my data for what I'm about to say: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Bn3M1tOrXYAdgEaYUj1cp2R8RcgjsD0rI9TTaS94ViQ/edit?usp=sharing . Feel free to check it, criticize it, tell me I'm bad at math, tell me my sources are wrong, or call me an idiot. Even if I made some minor errors counting weeks and such, the general trends are way too pronounced to be ignored.

Hi, I'm Pharos#2088, AKA that guy who complains in #memes about BBQ not being on the Shrine, AKA mimzy630, AKA Aigis of Reason. I've done a pretty in-depth analysis on the Shrine of Secrets week by week, and whether it is "fair" (i.e., does every teachable perk have an equal chance of appearing each week.). Obviously, the answer I've come up with is no, no it isn't. I started by looking at BBQ & Chili, half because the week it was on the Shrine my laptop was broken, and half because I suspected its absence for so many weeks would be a statistical anomaly. Well, we're living in the worst timeline, because at the time of writing this (January 24th, 2019), the chance of BBQ not being on the Shrine since October 31st-November 7th, 2017 is 1.89%. This is an anomaly, to say the least. To say more, this is likely intentional rigging by either BHVR or pressure from Vertex to make more money from the license due to it being $4.99 base price rather than $6.99. Now, I don't know the real reason. In fact, 1.89% isn't that low, and it is possible. For several months now, I've been lurking the #memes channel in the Dead by Daylight Discord, ranting every Tuesday about the new Shrine. However, I hadn't formally typed up my data. Now I have, and now someone can really check for themselves if the Shrine is rigged.

Of course, BBQ being so popular, I thought maybe focusing on it gave me a bias. So, I next did a full analysis week-by-week to see if the chance of paid and chance of free perks on the Shrine was proportional to what was expected by statistics. Naturally, again, it wasn't. No big surprise there. However, the trend was so durable, and at times so large, that it really struck me: 115 weeks and 460 trials netted a -6.7% weighted average, or average fewer paid perks. Normally, this would be pretty minor and insignificant, but with the backing of 460 trials, this represents a trend. I didn't both calculating the standard deviation of significance (R) value because I honestly don't remember how, but any data with such strong negative correlation and over 400 trials at least deserves further review.

To close, I do like this game. I have about 358 hours and counting, but these findings are (pun intended) rather insidious. I'd rather not think that BHVR is actively lying about the Shrine of Secrets being "random" and "fair," but that seems to be the only option.

To any DBD player reading this, I hope you share it. To BHVR Staff, I ask that you do at least one of the following:

Make a statement that the Shrine of Secrets is rigged

Make the Shrine of Secrets truly random

Release the formula that determines the weekly Shrine of Secrets

Notice none of those say "Rig the Shrine of Secrets." If random chance means never seeing BBQ on the Shrine again and having to shell out that $4.99, so be it. I don't care. This game is cheap at $20 with constant sales and I don't mind supporting the devs. The only thing I mind supporting is lying. These are clearly not outliers. Time and number of trials are on my side to say that and make the data significant. This is a trend, and I want to see it gone or recognized.

TL;DR: It’s probably rigged. The chance of getting BBQ, and more important, the overall chance of getting paid perk is far lower than statistics would suggest. #FixTheShrine

  • Pharos#2088

Comments

  • mimzy630 mimzy630

    @Mister_xD said:
    i personally dont care about the shrine.
    i just unlock a killers teachables as soon as i can, so i wont have to buy them with shards and instead can go and buy some neat cosmetics with them :)

    so, yeah... if you want BBQ, just level your Bubba.
    if you dont have him... sucks to be you i guess xD

    but yeah, i might be up for an idea that makes the shrine of secrets prefer perks you havent unlocked yet, so you have a higher chance at getting what you want. there would also be a reason then to buy the ones you dont like, as this would increase your chance to get a perk you want next time.

    That's valid. I don't really need BBQ on the Shrine, $2.49 on a sale is way cheap, but it's not really about that anymore.

  • DwightsLifeMatters DwightsLifeMatters
    Milord said:
    I think people focus to much on the bbq here. The more interesting finding is that in every single period we see less paid perk compared to free perk than what's expected. Granted the math isn't perfect, but from what I know, given free perk appears more often than expected, using a more rigorous math would only widen the gap between the real paid perk rate compared to the expected paid perk rate.
    BBQ is just a strong meta perk and is the extreme example. Same goes with ruin, pretty sure it appears like 4 times or so in total? And hag was the second paid dlc 
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